Could 2026 finally be the year that football comes home?
If England wants to win the 2026 World Cup in North America for its first major trophy in 60 years, it’s off to a good start, easily topping its World Cup qualifying group through five matches. The Three Lions will play their sixth match at 2:45 p.m. ET (9:45 p.m. local) against Latvia at the Daugava Stadium in Riga.
The game shouldn’t be close: England is a -2500 favorite to win and +1600 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the the 11 Wolves are +3500.
England vs. Latvia prediction, pick
The Three Lions are one of just three teams not to concede a goal through the first couple rounds of qualifying, and their attack has had plenty of firepower, poking 13 goals home in five matches. England is incredibly deep: though Harry Kane leads the team with four goals and should continue to play a central role as arguably the most in-form striker in Europe, nine different players have found the back of the net. Declan Rice is tied for second in European qualifying in assists with four, and the back line has forced Jordan Pickford to make just one save. The Three Lions’ most recent win was their most convincing, as they produced a 5-0 throttling of Serbia, in theory the second-best team in the group. That match saw England control 70% of the possession and get 12 of 24 shots on target, with a different player scoring each of the team’s five goals.
To be fair, Latvia has been decent, losing only one game by multiple goals and scoring as many goals as Serbia. All four of the 11 Wolves’ goals have been scored by different players, indicating that they, too, have some depth, though Daejeon Citizen striker Vladislavs Gutkovskis easily leads the team in shot attempts. Substitute Dario Sits, a 21-year-old Atlético Madrid prospect who’s currently on loan from Serie A side Parma, is arguably the country’s most promising talent and scored the winner in Latvia’s win over Andorra in the team’s first qualifying match. The 11 Wolves have some solid defenders, led by Andrejs Ciganiks, who plays for FC Luzern in the Swiss Super League, and goalkeeper Krišjānis Zviedris has made the eighth-most saves of any player. They’ve been fairly competitive at home throughout the entire campaign, posting just a minus-one goal difference in Riga.
This one could be fairly low-scoring. Ever since its opening win against Andorra, Latvia has parked the bus with a 5-3-2 defensive system, which it morphed into a 5-4-1 for the teams’ first matchup on March 24 at Wembley Stadium. In that clash, the 11 Wolves forced England to take some pretty low-quality shots, and the Three Lions got just eight of their 27 shots on target even in what was ultimately a 3-0 win. Excepting the clash against Serbia, the Three Lions haven’t been super aggressive in the attack, scoring no more than three goals in any game despite achieving at least 70% possession in each match. Goal difference will be irrelevant, as a win will assure qualification. Latvia has nothing to play for but pride and should want to put on a strong defensive effort for the home crowd.
