With 26 MLB teams at home, just four remain in the pursuit of the loftiest prize in baseball: a World Series. Three of the teams, if they were to win, would break long title droughts: neither the Milwaukee Brewers nor the Seattle Mariners has ever won, while the Toronto Blue Jays would win for the first time since 1993. The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, would go back-to-back.
This NLCS is a rematch of 2018, when the Dodgers prevailed over the Brewers, 5-1, in Game 7 behind Cody Bellinger and Yasiel Puig homers en route to losing in the World Series to the Boston Red Sox. There are some remarkable similarities between the two series: in both seasons, Milwaukee won 96 games to claim the NL’s top seed and home field advantage, while Los Angeles had a win total in the low 90s. The rosters are very different, but the Dodgers are hoping for similar results.
For tonight’s Game 1, which begins at 8:08 p.m. ET, Los Angeles will start Blake Snell and the Brewers will use Aaron Ashby as an opener ahead of, presumably, Quinn Priester.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers prediction, preview
Milwaukee had the Dodgers’ number this season, winning all six of the team’s regular season matchups and holding Los Angeles to two or fewer runs in four of them, including all three home games. Ashby featured in three of them, all as a reliever, pitching 3.2 innings and conceding three runs on three walks and six hits, registering one hold. But the six regular season matchups matter little now, and the Dodgers have been more convincing in the postseason even if the Brewers have posted slightly better overall numbers on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles also has the rest advantage after finishing off the Philadelphia Phillies in four games, while Milwaukee required five to oust the Chicago Cubs.
A bullpen game wouldn’t exactly be the worst thing for the Brewers. Milwaukee’s relievers allowed just four earned runs in 30.0 innings against Chicago, effectively handling all of Games 2, 3, and 4. Ashby served as the opener in Game 2, getting five outs and allowing three earned runs, but he was stellar in his other 2.2 innings and should be expected to bounce back, given that he recorded a 2.16 ERA during the regular season. He’ll likely be asked to handle the first inning or two before handing it off to Priester. I’d expect him to rebound from a rough Game 3, given that the Brewers won all 19 games he started between May 30 and September 18, including a six-inning shutout gem at Dodger Stadium on July 18. 10 of Milwaukee’s 12 pitchers should be available, all except Game 2 starter Freddy Peralta and Jacob Misiorowski, who threw 54 pitches in Game 5 two nights ago.
The Dodgers have a more well-established starting plan, as Snell is on six days’ rest after starting Game 2 of the NLDS. The southpaw has been brilliant in his two postseason starts so far, pitching 13 innings and giving up just five hits and two earned runs while walking five and striking out 18. He was arguably the best of Los Angeles’ aces during the regular season, pitching to a 2.35 ERA in his 11 starts, and the Brewers haven’t faced him yet because he only returned from his shoulder injury on August 2. Snell is well-equipped to mitigate Milwaukee’s strengths: the Brewers whiffed at the third-lowest rate this season, and Snell induced whiffs at a 96th-percentile clip. Milwaukee also hasn’t hit the ball very hard, and Snell has been a master of inducing soft contact. In an ideal world for the Dodgers, Snell would handle the first six or seven innings, and some combination of Alex Vesia, Jack Dreyer and Anthony Banda will bridge the gap to Roki Sasaki in the ninth. Combined, those pitchers have allowed just four earned runs these playoffs.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers to Win by 1 Run (+475)
Based on Los Angeles’ Snell-Banda-Sasaki pitching plan, it’s hard to imagine the Brewers scoring too many runs. However, it’s equally hard to see the Dodgers getting much going against Milwaukee’s elite bullpen. Each of Los Angeles’ three wins against the Phillies came by one run.
Strong Lean: Shohei Ohtani 2+ Hits (+224)
Ohtani had a miserable NLDS, going just one-for-18 with nine strikeouts, but that’s in part because Philadelphia has a very lefty-heavy roster. The Brewers more frequently on right-handers, and though Ashby is opening in part to start Ohtani against a lefty, he went two-for-two with an RBI against him during the regular season.
