So far, only one team has clinched its ticket to the league championship series: the Toronto Blue Jays, who trounced the New York Yankees in Game 4 to advance to their first LCS since 2016. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers, who both lost last night with a chance to close out their respective series, will have another opportunity to do so tonight. Milwaukee’s game against the Chicago Cubs starts at 9:08 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field.
Freddy Peralta will take the mound for the Brewers, while the Cubs send Matthew Boyd atop the bump.
Milwaukee is a -120 favorite on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over-under set for seven runs. Chicago is -102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll take you through my three favorite player props from tonight’s clash.
Brewers at Cubs Prop Bets for Game 4
Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts (+137)
The Brewers should be pretty happy if this game goes exactly as Game 1 did; in that game, Peralta fanned nine batters in 5.2 innings of four-hit, two-run ball, and Milwaukee’s hitters chased Boyd after just two outs while tagging him with four hits and two runs. After allowing a leadoff homer to Michael Busch on the fourth pitch of the game, Peralta settled down, allowing just one hit and three walks in the next 21 batters. He generated 13 whiffs, the second-most in a game in his playoff career, and he’s now recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last seven games dating back to the regular season.
Plus, a Cubs offense that was cold to end the season hasn’t heated up in the playoffs. Chicago has scored more than three runs just once, when it managed to plate four last night, and so far these playoffs, it has posted just a .670 OPS, a mark that would have ranked third-to-last during the regular season. Though the Cubs were not particularly strikeout-prone during the regular season, even during their second half slump, they have struck out 65 times in the first six games of the playoffs, the highest rate of any team. Seven players have been fanned double-digit times these playoffs, and three of them — Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson — play for Chicago.
Matthew Boyd O3.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
It was a tale of two halves for Boyd, who had a 2.34 ERA at the All-Star break en route to being named to the team for the first time. But after a seven-inning shutout outing in his first start after the All-Star break, he pitched to a 5.16 ERA in his final 11 starts of the regular season, giving up four or more hits in all but two of them and two or more runs in all but one. In that regard, his poor playoff performance shouldn’t have been a surprise. He did have a solid outing in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres, turning in 4.1 innings of one-run ball, but even then, he gave up four hits.
Of course, the line assumes that Craig Counsell will have a short leash on his starting pitcher, but it shouldn’t take the Brewers all that long to get four hits. They were one of the league’s best contact-hitting teams during the regular season: after the All-Star break, they batted .272, which trailed only the Toronto Blue Jays. It took Milwaukee just two outs to get four hits in Game 1, eight outs to get that many in Game 2, and 10 outs in Game 3, and Boyd’s line is set to O/U 9.5 outs. Counsell would surely prefer not to yank his starter at the absolute first sign of trouble, given that his bullpen has gotten 17.2 of the 25 outs so far this series.
Michael Busch O1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Busch has been obscenely hot so far these playoffs, hitting three homers in six games, including a pair of leadoff shots. It was merely a continuation of the end of the regular season, when he slashed .316/.403/.877 in his last 16 games, hitting eight homers and totaling two or more total bases in nine of those contests. He’s a bit boom or bust — in that span, he’s only reached 2+ TB twice in games in which he didn’t homer — but in general, it makes sense to trust a guy who’s clearly seeing the ball well.
The homer that he hit off of Peralta was no fluke; he also hit one off of him on May 28, 2024. One of the Dominican’s few flaws is a 32nd percentile barrel rate, in part because he struggles to produce ground balls, and Busch is excellent at finding the launch angle sweet spot even if he doesn’t swing that hard. Busch also had a solid .910 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, and in particular, he should thrive against Peralta’s pitch mix. Peralta primarily throws four-seam fastballs against lefties, with changeups accounting for roughly a quarter of all pitches, and Busch has posted a run value of 9 against both pitches.
