“Do Bronx” is back in his home country of Brazil! Charles Oliveira is facing Mateusz Gamrot in the Main Event of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Oliveira is looking to get back on track, while Gamrot aims to extend his win streak to two.
Here is my best bet for Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot at this week’s UFC Fight Night in Brazil.
Charles Oliveira Moneyline (-105)
After losing to Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 in June, Charles Oliveira returns home to try and bounce back. Oliveira has gone 2-3 in his last five fights, with his last victory coming against Michael Chandler at UFC 309 in November 2024. Oliveira has suffered back-to-back losses since 2016. In the past four years, Oliveira has had an incredibly tough schedule, with his last three losses coming against two champions and Arman Tsarukyan, the No. 2-ranked Lightweight in the world.
Now, Oliveira will face Gamrot, who, although talented, remains the No. 8 best fighter at 155 pounds. While it may not be large, this is still a step down in competition for “Do Bronx”. From 2020 to 2025, Oliveira competed on nine straight PPVs, with five Main Event fights. Now, he will compete in his first UFC Fight Night since March 2020.
Oliveira is a slight -105 underdog while Gamrot is a -115 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. In this matchup, both fighters stand at 5’10” while Oliveira has a four-inch reach advantage (74″ vs. 70″). On the feet, Oliveira has the advantage as he averages more significant strikes per minute (3.41 vs. 3.35) while having a higher striking accuracy (55% vs. 51%). On the ground, Gamrot lands 3.10 more takedowns per 15 minutes.
But since Gamrot only lands his takedown attempts at a 36 percent clip, Oliveira should be able to neutralize his attack with his 56 percent takedown defense. Although it hasn’t looked great for Oliveira lately, I’ll still back the former champion, who has delivered so many memorable moments in the past.
