As the weather gets brisk and the leaves start to turn, football teams start to gear up for the home stretch ahead. Professionally, the season has barely begun, but for college teams, whose regular season schedules are tied to academic semesters, this week marks the halfway point.
The beauty of the conference system is that, despite five of 12 games having been played already, no FBS school nation-wide has played more than three conference games, so every conference is title is still very much up for grabs. For instance, despite starting 4-1 behind a dominant defense that has allowed the 10th-fewest points per game in the country, San Diego State is just 1-0 in the Mountain West, one game ahead of hapless Nevada, which is just 1-4 and has the conference’s second-worst point differential.
The two teams will face off at 10:30 p.m. ET tonight at Mackay Stadium in Reno, where the Wolf Pack picked up their only win of the season on September 6 in a 20-17 win over FCS school Sacramento State.
The Aztecs are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 41.5. San Diego State is -285 on the Moneyline, and Nevada is +230.
Below, I’ll break down each team’s second intra-conference game and offer a prediction.
San Diego State vs. Nevada prediction, preview
While a win tonight would move the Aztecs to within a stone’s throw of their first winning season since 2022, they’ve been pretty inconsistent on both sides of the ball, posting two shutout, blowout wins over Stony Brook and California, a comfortable victory over Colorado State, a 6-3 affair over Northern Illinois, and a blowout defeat against Washington State. It’s been hard to predict which version of San Diego State will show up on any given night and how efficient quarterback Jayden Denegal will be. More often than not, though, he’s been mistake-free on low volume and the Aztecs have ridden a strong rushing attack to wins.
The Wolf Pack are probably a better team than their record and point differential might indicate, as it’s been heavily skewed by a 46-11 opening-week road loss at Penn State, a program whose athletics department has a budget more than four times as high as Nevada’s. Besides that game, the Wolf Pack have been competitive, losing to Middle Tennessee and Fresno State by a combined four points and Western Kentucky by two scores. Nevada has actually had a more potent rushing game than San Diego State. While the Wolf Pack’s passing attack had been weak under Chubba Purdy, true freshman Carter Jones looked good in the second half against the Bulldogs and could be in line to start tonight.
Nevada actually picked up a win the last time these two teams faced off in 2023 and have won three of the last five overall, though it was the Aztecs who came out on top the last time that they played in Reno, emerging with a 23-7 win during the Wolf Pack’s 2022 homecoming game. Nevada has been one of the FBS’ worst programs across the last three-plus seasons, going just 8-34 since the start of 2022, but it’s not like San Diego State has challenged for a conference title recently, either.
San Diego State vs. Nevada pick, best bet
I’d expect both teams to keep it on the ground, since the Aztecs and Wolf Pack have both opted to run nearly twice as often as pass this season and because Reno can experience ferocious winds in October.
San Diego State has had one of the nation’s breakout backs in junior Lucky Sutton, who’s turned his 88 carries into 450 yards and five scores, good for 30th in the nation in yards, and Byron Cardwell and Christian Washington have crossed the century mark as well, with Cardwell averaging an impressive 7.0 yards per attempt. That’s not to say that Denegal can’t pass — he’s completed a solid 63.3% of his passes for 892 yards, five touchdowns, and only two interceptions — but it isn’t the Aztecs’ preferred style of offense. Only one San Diego State wideout, sophomore Jordan Napier, has more than 140 receiving yards. Napier ranks 18th nation-wide with 443 yards, so Nevada will have to prioritize stopping him.
The Wolf Pack aren’t well-suited to stop an elite ground game. This season, they’ve allowed 136.6 rushing yards per game, just the 63rd-fewest in the FBS, and they’ve also conceded nine touchdown rushes. They’ve allowed more than 100 rushing yards in each of their five games, including 152 to Fresno State in their Mountain West opener last Saturday. However, Nevada is even less equipped to deal with the pass, ranking just 81st in team passing efficiency defense, a composite stat that includes various volume and efficiency metrics. It has allowed the 44th-most passing yards and has the nation’s second-worst turnover margin.
The Wolf Pack will have to win instead through their rushing attack, which has averaged the 50th-most yards per game even if it has only found the end zone twice. The ground game has mostly been initiated by Nevada’s quarterback, Purdy, who has amassed 292 total yards on 60 carries and scored both of the school’s rushing touchdowns, but both Caleb Ramseur and Herschel Turner have averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry on solid volume, so the Wolf Pack can still survive through a more typical rushing attack if they indeed opt for the more pass-happy Jones. Purdy has barely completed half of his passes and thrown just one touchdown to eight interceptions, so no Nevada receiver has even amassed 200 yards.
Relying on the ground game could be a problem against the Aztecs, who have allowed the 27th-fewest rushing yards in the country and only two rushing scores, tied for the third-fewest in the FBS. San Diego State has been even better against the pass, posting the nation’s 10th-best team passing efficiency defense and allowing opponents to complete just 51.9% of their passes. The Aztecs have also been clutch, allowing the 11th-lowest third down conversion rate and the 18th-lowest red zone conversion rate, although it’s not like the Wolf Pack have been particularly strong in either metric. San Diego State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, though, so the key for Nevada pulling off the upset will be to avoid silly giveaways.
Even if Jones starts and shows his promise, he’s still a true freshman with 25 career pass attempts to his name — one of which was intercepted — and asking him to beat one of the nation’s best defenses in his maiden appearance seems like a lot, and if Purdy starts, the Wolf Pack have no chance. The Aztecs are inconsistent, but that defense should travel even if the offense doesn’t. I’ll take the California side to cross the border and win handily.
Best bet: San Diego State -7.5 (-105) at Nevada
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