The Mercury will host the Aces today for Game 3 of the WNBA Finals. Currently, the Aces lead this best-of -seven series 2-0. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by four points for Game 3 and this contest carries a total of 163.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 3 between the Mercury and Aces give a pick for this contest.
Mercury vs. Aces preview, prediction
After a hard-fought Game 1, the Aces made it look easier in Game 2, defeating the Mercury 91-78 to take the 2-0 series lead. Las Vegas led by as many as 22 points and shot the ball very well, shooting 49.3% from the field. Las Vegas’ dynamic duo of A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young was spectacular. Wilson posted a huge double-double of 28 points and 11 rebounds, and Young poured in 32 points on 60% shooting. Chelsea Gray also flirted with a triple-double, finishing with 10 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds.
After turning the ball over 20 times in Game 1, the Mercury cleaned it up in Game 2 and only turned the ball over 11 times, but their offense simply wasn’t enough to keep up with the red-hot Aces. Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally led Phoenix with 23 and 22 points, respectively, but Alyssa Thomas had a quiet night by her standards, with 10 points, six rebounds and five assists. This big three accounted for 71% of the Mercury’s points and no other Phoenix player scored more than nine points.
The Mercury’s lack of scoring from their role players is concerning and another concern for Phoenix is the health of Sabally, as she sprained her ankle late in Game 2. Sabally practiced Tuesday and her sitting out Game 3 is unlikely, but if Sabally is limited in any way by the injury, the Mercury could be in trouble, as the veteran is the team’s leading scorer this postseason, averaging 18.4 PPG.
While this series shifting back to Phoenix is a big deal for the Mercury, as they are 18-8 at home this season and competing at home should be a boost for the club’s role players, Phoenix’s overall play vs. the Aces this season is a big red flag. Las Vegas is 5-1 vs. Phoenix this season and that lone win for the Mercury came with Wilson sidelined. The superstar has scored 26+ points in three of her five matchups with Phoenix this season and the Mercury must slow Wilson down if they want to get back in this series, but that will be a difficult task with the center averaging a league-high 25.7 PPG during these playoffs.
Mercury vs. Aces pick, best bet
The Aces’ success vs. the Mercury this season is hard to overlook and Sabally being banged up could be too much to overcome for Phoenix. Las Vegas taking a commanding 3-0 series lead feels likely and backing the Aces to win at a +154 ML price on DraftKings Sportsbook has a ton of merit.
If that is too bold of a call for you, Las Vegas +4 is a safer wager to attack.
