The WNBA Finals continue Sunday with Game 2 between the Aces and Mercury in Las Vegas. Currently, the Aces lead this series 1-0. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 164.5 points.
Below, I break down Game 2 between the Aces and the Mercury and give a pick for this contest.
Aces vs. Mercury preview, prediction
The Aces took Game 1 this past Friday in a tight and competitive contest that finished 89-86. The biggest lead in the game was only nine points and both teams were almost even in most major categories, except the turnovers and bench production. The Mercury turned the ball over 14 times, compared to just seven times for the Aces. As a result, Las Vegas scored 20 points off turnovers, which was double of Phoenix with 10. The Aces’ bench also erupted for 41 points, compared to just 16 for the Mercury, which was obviously a massive difference-maker in this tilt.
Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd were outstanding and accounted for most of those bench points for Las Vegas, scoring 21 and 18 points, respectively. While these two thrived off the bench, A’ja Wilson was excellent for the Aces’ first unit, as per usual, posting 21 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two blocks and a steal. Jackie Young, however, struggled with just 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting. The guard has been terrific with 19.3 PPG this postseason and with Las Vegas unlikely to get big production from its bench again in Game 2, Young will need to return to her strong form for the Aces to take Game 2 on Sunday.
In the loss for the Mercury, the club’s big three rose to the occasion. Alyssa Thomas nearly tallied a triple-double with 15 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists, Kahleah Copper scored a team-high 21 points – including 5-of-9 on three-pointers – and Satou Sabally’s great playoff run continued with 19 points, four rebounds and four assists. Thomas made some huge plays for Phoenix in this game and played some strong defense on Wilson, but the veteran did cough up five turnovers, which is something that simply can’t happen again for the Mercury in Game 2.
The Mercury turning the ball over a ton was very uncharacteristic of the club, as Phoenix has the lowest turnover percentage in the WNBA this postseason (14.6%). Phoenix easily could have won this contest if the team protected the ball better and if this experienced Mercury group can limit the turnovers in Game 2 like they usually do, Phoenix will be in a strong position to even this series on Sunday.
Aces vs. Mercury pick, best bet
The Aces’ bench scoring 46% of the team’s points in Game 1 was very fluky and is something that is highly unlikely to happen again. Furthermore, the Mercury turning the ball over 20 times again is also not likely. Phoenix should protect the ball better in Game 2 and respond with a win to even this best-of-seven series.
The Mercury haven’t lost two games in a row this postseason and backing Phoenix to win Game 2 is a strong move at an appealing +124 ML price.
