One week after Real Madrid lost in the Madrid Derby to rivals Atlético Madrid, it’ll seek to reclaim its place atop the La Liga table with a 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) clash against Villarreal. If it wins, though, its stay atop the table may be short, as league leaders Barcelona — now missing wunderkind Lamine Yamal — will face Sevilla tomorrow with a chance to go one point clear once again.
Los Blancos are -220 favorites to win and +425 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Yellow Submarine is +500.
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal prediction, pick
Their 5-2 defeat in the Madrid Derby aside, Real Madrid has looked impressive this season. Los Blancos won each of their first six games of the season with ease and then throttled Kairat Almaty in the Champions League on Tuesday, 5-0, with Kylian Mbappé scoring a hat trick. After winning the European Golden Boot in his first season in the Spanish capital, Mbappé has been a man on a mission this season, netting eight times in seven La Liga appearances and 15 in 11 matches for club and country overall. He leads La Liga in several categories, including goals, shots, shots on target, and goal-creating actions. Madrid’s defense hasn’t been that impressive, as it has allowed eight goals, and it no longer has any healthy right-backs with both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dani Carvajal injured, so it had to start Raúl Asencio in his less natural position there against Kairat. In net, Thibaut Courtois was good against the Kazakh side but otherwise has had a mediocre season, saving just 70% of his total opportunities.
A Villarreal upset wouldn’t be all that unrealistic. Yellow Submarine has been sharp this season behind an elite defense — the five goals it has allowed tie Barcelona for the league low — and an attack that has poked home 13 goals, the fourth-most in the table. Its expected goal difference is just 0.4 worse than Real Madrid’s. So far this season, its best player has been Ivorian forward Nicolas Pépé, who was named to the Champions League after assisting Georges Mikautadze for the opening goal in its 2-2 Champions League draw against Juventus in a three-tackle, three-interception performance. For Villarreal, it’s been a team effort: though only Tajon Buchanan has more than two goals, eight different players have at least two goal contributions, and goalkeeper Luiz Lúcio Reis Júnior has been one of the best at his position. Yellow Submarine has been the second-best tackling team in Spain and has allowed the third-fewest shot creating actions per 90 minutes.
It’s unclear how much, if at all, Xabi Alonso will rotate his squad after he introduced a stronger squad in Kazakhstan than I expected, playing both Vinicius Júnior and Mbappé. Either way, he shouldn’t take Villarreal lightly, given that it finished just 14 points worse than Los Blancos last season, and it has operated well even without last season’s top scorer, Ayoze Pérez, for most of the season. I’m not sure I should be too confident in a team that lost to Tottenham in an ugly 1-0 affair in the Champions League two weeks ago, but it’s also unfair to expect Villarreal to miss the target with all 10 of its shots like it did in that game. I can expect that Yellow Submarine will stay patient on defense and allow Real Madrid to control the possession and strike on the counter, which could be a problem for a team without a right back. Mikautadze’s speed will allow it to score the goal that covers the spread.
