In last season’s UEFA Champions League, Bayern Münich and Arsenal both came close to the promised land, but ultimately, the English and German champions suffered the same fate. Die Roten were narrowly knocked out against Paris Saint-Germain in an instant classic two-legged semifinals tie, and the Gunners pushed Les Parisiens all the way to a penalty shootout before Gabriel Magalhães’ skied effort on the fifth spot kick condemned Arsenal to a runner-up finish.
Both teams figure to be contenders into the later phases of the competition again this season, and they’ll each play arguably their biggest match of the League Phase at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) when Bayern hosts the Gunners in Munich.
Die Roten are +105 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and Arsenal is +225. There are +295 odds that the teams will walk away with a point apiece.
Below, I’ll break down this clash of titans and provide my favorite bet.
Bayern Munchen vs. Arsenal Best Bet:
- Arsenal Moneyline (+225): Bayern is a tremendous team with some of the best attacking talents in the world and a solid defense to boot, and it obviously wouldn’t be a surprise if the German giants won. However, the value is on the Gunners, who picked up a 3-1 win at the Emirates in the 2025/26 League Phase, especially with Michael Olise suspended and Manuel Neuer not a guarantee to suit up. Arsenal has by far the best defense in the world, and its attack has enough quality to win a low-scoring affair.
Bayern Munchen vs. Arsenal prediction, pick
Both teams project to defend as titles of their respective domestic leagues, and so far, neither has demonstrated any evidence to the contrary. Bayern opened its season by claiming the German Super Cup over Borussia Dortmund, and even after a relatively slow start (draws against Schalke 04 and Augsburg), 4-2-0 has been enough to lead the Bundesliga. Die Roten have played a pair of Norwegian clubs in their first two matches of the league phase, trashing Bodø/Glimt 5-0 but only drawing with Viking, 3-3. Meanwhile, the Gunners have yet to slip up in the Champions League, picking up a 1-0 result against Napoli and a 3-0 outburst against Lille, but they lost 3-0 to Brighton in the Premier League to sit behind Manchester City in the table.
Die Roten’s front line is led by the man who will likely finish either first or second in Ballon d’Or voting, Harry Kane. He, Luis Díaz, and fellow Ballon d’Or contender Michael Olise have all been ridiculous to open the season, combining for 13 goals and eight assists in Bayern’s six Bundesliga matches and a further six goals and three assists in the UCL. They also have the depth to cover for Olise’s red card suspension, as Ismael Saibari or Lennart Karl could step into his place. All in all, Die Roten have scored six more goals than any other Bundesliga outfit, firing off 20 more shots on target, and only PSG has registered more shots on target in the Champions League. Bayern has also been among the most clinical passing teams in both competitions, consistently creating chances through both build-up play and direct attacks. Die Roten have paired their front line with a similarly stout defense, allowing among the fewest xG and total shots in both competitions while winning aerial duels at among the highest rates. Bayern hasn’t been perfect defensively, as it has lost a majority of its ground duels in both the Bundesliga and the UCL and have been the Champions League’s second-worst team at defending set pieces so far, but with true superstars in Dayot Upamecano and Joshua Kimmich in the back line, its floor is high. In between the sticks, much will depend on Manuel Neuer’s health; Jonas Urbig has filled in before, but he struggled against Viking and hasn’t yet proven himself a truly world-class shot-stopper.
Die Roten will have their hands full with Arsenal. The Gunners don’t quite have the attacking firepower that Bayern does, but Bukayo Saka has had a strong start to the Premier League campaign, Kai Havertz consistently produces in big moments, and Riccardo Calafiori might be the world’s best attacking fullback not named Nuno Mendes or Achraf Hakimi. Declan Rice also leads England’s top flight in assists. Through the first seven matches of the season, Arsenal ranks fourth in xG, fifth in goals, and ninth in shots on target in the Premier League, and it ranks similarly in the UCL despite not finishing very well. The Gunners have also been the second-best overall passing team in both the Premier League and the Champions League, so they should continue producing good chances. A good-to-great attack should be sufficient, given their unbreakable defense; no team in either competition has allowed fewer goals, xG, shots on target, or a lower shot-in-box percentage, and only the Sky Blues have allowed fewer touches in the box. Arsenal has also pressed at the highest rate and produced the most high turnovers through two Champions League matches, and it’s combined its aggression with solid discipline and elite defense against set pieces. William Saliba, who (like Gabriel) has a case as the best center-back in the world, has missed the entire season, but Ezri Konsa has filled in seamlessly. David Raya hasn’t had a lot to do in either competition, but his consistent exploits over the past several seasons give him the edge over either Neuer or Urbig.
Of course, Die Roten haven’t lost at home since January 24, when they fell 2-1 to Augsburg in the Bundesliga while resting several of their best players. However, the Gunners picked up a 3-1 win at the Emirates in the League Phase last season, and it’s hardly like they’re incapable of performing on the road, beating Inter Milan in last season’s League Phase at the San Siro. Bayern will miss Olise, who has created the second-most chances of any player so far in the UCL, and its struggles against set pieces and inability to play the offsides trap could prove problematic against Arsenal. Taking the English champions at +225 despite UEFA’s club rankings considering these clubs almost identical in quality feels like excellent value.
