It’s already Week 5? After months of being deprived, the season is getting depleted faster than the bank account of a man paying alimony to multiple wives! But it is said that time flies when you are having fun. My wife still doesn’t understand the infatuation of following guys that throw, catch and run. But then I respond that she has no power here because all I hear in the background is the Chinese drama re-run. The Dillon Gabriel hive is now dancing in the streets as his time has arrived. What a time to be alive. In this piece I will strive to perform the deepest of dives so that we may all thrive.
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay and Pittsburgh have a bye this week.
We’ve got 10 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, five games have spreads of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Detroit on the road over Cincinnati by 10 points. Five games have a total of at least 45 points, with DET/CIN the highest at 49.5 points. The lowest total is the MIN/CLE at 35.5 points. There are five home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Commanders ($6,100) – Herbert has scored fewer FPTS in each game this season. In the opener, he put up 30.9 FPTS and it’s gone to 19.8, 18.6 and 14.5 FPTS last week. In Week 2, the Chargers had the game in hand so Herbert only threw 27 times. In the last two weeks, he attempted 47 and 41 passes but threw a total of three interceptions. Denver has one of the best pass defenses while New York’s defensive line caused havoc. Things should be easier this week against a Commanders team that has the fifth-highest EPA per dropback and the ninth-lowest pressure rate. In addition, Jayden Daniels is back for Washington and the total is a healthy 46.5, so points should be scored, forcing the Chargers to remain aggressive on offense.
Other Options – Jayden Daniels ($7,000)
Value
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins ($4,700) – Young has not been good this season, throwing for fewer than 155 yards in three games, resulting in fewer than 12 FPTS in those contests. He did put up 26.3 FPTS in Week 2, going 35-of-55 for 328 yards and three touchdowns. He has the pedigree and has shown flashes throughout his career. This could be a get-right spot for Young in Week 5, as the Dolphins have one of the most generous pass defenses (second-highest EPA per dropback) while Miami should also put up points despite losing Tyreek Hill. The total for this game is a healthy 45.5.
Other Options – Dak Prescott ($6,000), Daniel Jones ($5,800), Justin Fields ($5,600), Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500), Jaxson Dart ($5,300)
Running Back
Stud
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Washington Commanders ($6,500) – With Najee Harris out due to injury, Hampton received 89% of the snaps last week. He produced 128 yards and a touchdown on 12 rushing attempts while catching all five targets for 37 yards. That translates to 30.5 FPTS. In the prior week when Harris suffered the injury, Hampton carried 19 times for 70 yards and a touchdown while hauling in six of seven targets for 59 yards. He is the bellcow for the Chargers and looks to be game script-proof. This could be an up-and-down affair with the Commanders getting Jayden Daniels back under center.
Other Options – Jonathan Taylor ($8,000), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700), De’Von Achane ($7,300)
Value
Woody Marks, Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens ($5,400) – Last week, Marks out-snapped Nick Chubb for the first time this season – 56% vs. 42%. He carried 17 times for 69 yards and a touchdown while catching four of five targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. The five targets were three more than for Chubb and, most surprisingly, Marks had two red zone opportunities while Chubb had zero. Baltimore has allowed the most FPTS to running backs on average, with the 29 receptions the most to the position.
Other Options – Cam Skattebo ($6,000), Breece Hall ($5,600), David Montgomery ($5,200), Emari Demercado ($4,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets ($6,600) – With no CeeDee Lamb last week, Pickens was the target hog and alpha for the Cowboys, garnering a team-high 11 targets. He turned those into eight catches for 134 and two touchdowns, good for 36.4 FPTS. Now, the Cowboys ran 67 plays in an overtime game, so the volume won’t be replicated, but the matchup is a good one as the Jets have allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback. This game has a total of 47.5 points, so points are expected to be scored.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,100), Emeka Egbuka ($6,900), Nico Collins ($6,800), Garrett Wilson ($6,100)
Value
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers ($5,400) – With Tyreek Hill out for the season, Waddle steps up the totem pole and will become the alpha at receiver. Waddle has played 17 games without Hill in the lineup, producing 112 receptions for 1,157 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s averaged 8.8 targets, 6.6 catches and 68.1 yards per game. Seven of the games finished with double-digit targets.
Other Options – Quentin Johnston ($5,700), Tetairoa McMillan ($5,700), Keenan Allen ($5,600), Ladd McConkey ($5,500), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,400), Chris Olave ($5,200), Darius Slayton ($4,300), Elic Ayomanor ($4,100), Malik Washington ($3,900)
Tight End
Stud
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($4,700) – Warren has 27 targets, the second-most on the Colts. The beauty of Warren is that he also gets some rushing attempts, especially near the goal line. On the season, he’s received five red zone opportunities and scored once. He’s put up double-digit FPTS in three of four contests this season.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($5,800), Jake Ferguson ($4,800)
Value
Tommy Tremble, Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins ($2,900) – With Ja’Tavion Sanders ruled out for Week 4, Tremble played a season-high 75% of the snaps, hauling in five of eight targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. Sanders hasn’t practiced this week and is in danger of missing Week 5 as well. Points will likely be scored in this one and the Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most receptions to tight ends.
Other Options – Zach Ertz ($3,800), Theo Johnson ($3,400)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Lions DST at Cincinnati Bengals ($3,500) – Detroit is 11th in pressure rate and second in sacks. The six takeaways are ninth-most. Over the last three games, the unit has finished with eight, eight and 19 FPTS. Now they get to face a Bengals team that is in disarray with Jake Browning at quarterback behind a bottom-third offensive line. Browning has thrown five interceptions and been sacked seven times.
Other Options – Cardinals DST ($3,600), Colts DST ($3,300)
Value
Seahawks DST vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,800) – The Buccaneers are a different offense this season. They will get Tristan Wirfs back on the offensive line, but are down a couple others. Baker Mayfield is only converting 59.7% of his passes, a far cry from the 71.4% last season. He’s been sacked eight times. Now he has to travel to Seattle, a difficult place to play due to the 12th man, but the Seahawks defense has been one of the best. They have the second-lowest EPA per carry with seven interceptions and 12 sacks.
Other Options – Giants DST ($2,900)
