I can’t believe it’s already Week 4. What will this slate have in store? As we explore, for ceiling and floor, hopefully that journey leads us to a profitable core, opening the door to mai tais on a sandy shore. Waiter! Pour some more! We have a few more days to continue being informed before we sit on our couches, yearning to hear the crowd roar after a player scores, fueling our emotions to soar, dreaming of being encased into DK lore. When the significant other tells you to do chores, though, do not ignore for they are the one you should adore.
We’ve got 11 games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, four games have spreads of three points or less. The biggest favorite is Buffalo at home over New Orleans by 15.5 points. Detroit is favored by 10 points over Cleveland at home. Six games have a total of at least 45 points, with IND/LAR the highest at 49.5 points. The lowest total is the TEN/HOU at 38.5 points. There are five home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns ($6,400) – The Lions are the second-biggest favorite on the slate, so the initial thought is game script concern, but the Browns run defense has been E. L. I. T. E. this season. The unit is posting the third-lowest EPA per carry and the 2.3 yards per attempt allowed are the fewest by a wide margin. Lamar Jackson carved up the Browns defense in Week 2, going 19-of-29 for 225 yards and four touchdowns. Goff is at home and the path of least resistance is definitely through the air. In Week 2, Goff went 23-of-28 for 334 yards and five touchdowns, good for 37 FPTS. I don’t think that ceiling is replicated in this one, especially since the return of Ben Johnson likely added some extra oomph for Detroit in that one, but 20+ FPTS seems likely.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($7,500), Jalen Hurts ($6,700), Justin Herbert ($6,300)
Value
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens ($6,000) – Mahomes is coming off a game in which he only put up 13.2 FPTS. He wasn’t really needed in that one as the Giants could only muster nine points. Against the Eagles and Chargers in the first two weeks of the season, Mahomes went for 23.1 and 26 FPTS. He only threw for 187 and 258 yards with a touchdown in each contest, but he rushed for 66 and 57 yards with a touchdown in both games. The running game is nonexistent right now for Kansas City, so not only are the Chiefs being carried by the shoulder of Mahomes, but also his legs. Mahomes leads all quarterbacks with 125 rushing yards through three weeks. Baltimore has seen 19 rushes by quarterbacks this season, the fourth-most. This game has the second-highest total on the slate at 48.5, and the Ravens will likely be putting up points, which means Mahomes will be donning the cape and leaping over tall buildings.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($5,800), Daniel Jones ($5,600), Drake Maye ($5,500), Geno Smith ($5,400), Bryce Young ($4,900)
Running Back
Stud
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($8,500) – Knock. Knock. Knock. CMC is healthy … for now. After receiving 76% and 77% of the snaps in the first two weeks of the season, he garnered a massive 91% snap share last week. He leads the 49ers with 24 targets and 19 red zone opportunities. He’s put up at least 22 FPTS in every contest so far. The floor/ceiling combo is one of the best in the game. Brock Purdy is trending toward playing in Week 4, which would provide a boost for the offense. This game has a healthy total of 46.5, so points are expected to be scored. CMC will likely have a hand in most of the points that San Francisco scores, especially since George Kittle is still out and Jauan Jennings still hasn’t practiced this week.
Other Options – Bijan Robinson ($8,200), Jonathan Taylor ($7,500), James Cook ($7,100), Kyren Williams ($6,300), Ashton Jeanty ($6,200)
Value
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants ($5,900) – With Najee Harris done for the season, Hampton becomes the bell cow for the Chargers. Last week, he carried 19 times for 70 yards and a touchdown. He is second on the team with 10 red zone opportunities. The matchup is a good one this week, as the Giants have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry and the 5.2 yards per carry are the fifth-most. The five rushing touchdowns allowed are the third-most. Now, the Chargers have become more Justin Herbert-centric, passing the ball 59.9% of the time, the 12th-highest pass rate. But Hampton is a dual-threat back and caught six of seven passes for 59 yards last week.
Other Options – Cam Skattebo ($5,500), TreVeyon Henderson ($5,200), Nick Chubb ($5,100)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns ($7,300) – As mentioned in the Goff section, the Browns have one of the best run defenses in the league, so I think the Lions will tilt more toward the air in this one. And St. Brown is the alpha, leading the team with 25 targets. He also has eight red zone opportunities. Last week, he caught seven of eight targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. In Week 2, he produced a ceiling game of 42.2 FPTS by hauling in nine of 11 targets for 115 yards and three touchdowns.
Other Options – Puka Nacua ($7,900), Nico Collins ($7,400), Zay Flowers ($6,700), A.J. Brown ($6,400), Rome Odunze ($6,300), Davante Adams ($6,200)
Value
Ryan Miller, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($3,100) – With Mike Evans out, everyone moves up a slot on the depth chart. Sterling Shepard will likely be popular, and he’s a good play, but I’m going to go down and save $900 at what should be minuscule ownership with Miller. Tampa Bay utilizes 11 personnel at the sixth-highest rate. Shepard was already playing 60 to 70% of the snaps while Miller was in the 20% to 25% range. He should see a massive uptick in playing time and the quick hitters could be dialed up more often against a potent Eagles defensive line.
Other Options – Jameson Williams ($5,900), Xavier Worthy ($5,800), Quentin Johnston ($5,500), Jakobi Meyers ($5,400), DeVonta Smith ($5,400), Keenan Allen ($5,300), Chris Olave ($5,100), Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,100), Rashod Bateman ($4,800), Luther Burden III ($4,700), Tre Tucker ($4,200), Sterling Shepard ($4,000), Tyquan Thornton ($3,900)
Tight End
Stud
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns ($4,200) – As mentioned in the Goff and St. Brown sections, I think the Lions tilt toward the air due to the excellent run defense that Cleveland possesses. LaPorta is third on the team with 17 targets, behind St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. He has three red zone opportunities on the season.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($5,800), Tyler Warren ($4,600), Juwan Johnson ($4,200)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($3,400) – Otton hasn’t done much this season, garnering just seven targets. He’s scored 5.5 FPTS all season, and those were produced in one game. He’s still out there for around 90% of the snaps and, with Evans out, the Buccaneers may use him more often. The Eagles also have a good run defense and could put up points on offense.
Other Options – Dallas Goedert ($3,900), Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,700), Tommy Tremble ($2,700)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Patriots DST vs. Carolina Panthers ($3,100) – The Patriots are 12th in pressure rate and have racked up the fourth-most sacks. Now they will get their star cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, back for this one.
Other Options – Bills DST ($3,700), Lions DST ($3,500), Texans DST ($3,400), Chargers DST ($3,300)
Value
Eagles DST at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,000) – The Eagles run defense has been middle-of-the-pack this season in EPA per carry and has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. The Rams were able to get busy on the ground last week, but the numbers against Dallas and Kansas City skew things due to the ejection of Jalen Carter and rushing prowess of Mahomes. Last season, the Eagles run defense was fifth in EPA per carry, and I think the unit gets back to those ways. So, if they are able to bottle up the Buccaneers run game, then things tilt toward Baker Mayfield, who has been serviceable, but a far cry from his spectacular season last year. He will be without Evans. The Eagles have only three sacks but are third in quarterback knockdowns. The 57.7% completion percentage is third-lowest.
Other Options –
