The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals have so much in common. They are both named after birds. Both play in the NFC West. Both are 2-1 on the season. The only loss for both has been to the San Francisco 49ers — the totals for those games were 30 and 31 points. They are 15th and 16th in EPA per dropback on defense. They are 12th and 13th in EPA per dropback on offense. They blitz at the fourth and sixth-lowest rates. Seattle is the only team to not allow a rushing touchdown this season. Arizona has only allowed one. Both teams beat up on New Orleans. Both teams do not utilize 11 personnel often, as Arizona ranks 28th while Seattle is dead-last at 32.14%.
Why do I keep patting my head to make sure there is no tinfoil hat there?
There are plenty of differences, though. Cardinals are red. Seahawks are blue. One is close to water while the other has an orange hue. Seattle is fourth in pressure rate on defense while Arizona is 17th. Seattle is allowing the third-fewest yards per carry at 3.2 while Arizona is 10th at 3.7. Seattle has racked up five takeaways while Arizona has three. Arizona is 16th in EPA per carry at -0.04 and averages 4.3 yards per carry on offense. Seattle is 25th, averaging only 3.3 yards per carry. Yet, Seattle has four rushing touchdowns while Arizona has one. Arizona is 20th in pass rate at 55.49%. Seattle is 30th at 47.62%. Kyler Murray is completing 67.4% of his passes at 6.1 yards per attempt while Sam Darnold is at 70.1% and 8.8 yards per attempt.
DraftKings Sportsbook has SEA -1.5 over ARI with the total at 43.5.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SEA @ ARI)
Captain’s Picks
Kenneth Walker III ($15,600 CP): Every Showdown slate requires a story, and this week mine will be taking us off the beaten path. If you’re more about safety, then this ain’t it for you, but I think the ownership will be relatively low for this story. For starters, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is awesome and is among the league leaders in targets this season. He is the highest-priced player on the slate and has been so, so consistent, putting up at least 20 FPTS in every contest this season. In two games against Arizona last season, he went for 19.7 and 19.6 FPTS in a smaller role. He will likely be the preferred path for Captain on this slate. In addition, Zach Charbonnet could return this week, and the volume hasn’t been whopping for Walker so far, all of which could keep many shying away from him. And the Seahawks running game hasn’t been great. That said, there’s upside here because 1) Walker is awesome, 2) the four rushing touchdowns are tied for the fourth-most in the NFL, 3) the Cardinals primarily run a 3-4 defense and Footballguys Matt Waldman made an interesting observation that Charbonnet had his best game against the 49ers, a team that utilizes a 4-3 defense and is most susceptible to outside zone runs, which is what Charbonnet does best. Walker is best when going downhill, which is more successful against 3-4 defenses and is what the Steelers and Cardinals employ.
UTIL Plays
Cooper Kupp ($7,000): If I’m fading Smith-Njigba, then someone else has to catch the passes. I think Tory Horton will be popular because he’s caught a touchdown in each of the past two games and is $1,200 cheaper while Kupp has put up two stinkers. In Week 2, though, he caught seven of nine targets for 90 yards, translating to 16 FPTS. Kupp leads the team with 122 snaps, is second with 15 targets and has one red zone opportunity.
Trey Benson ($8,800): The Seahawks have been one of the best teams against the run and I don’t expect Benson to have much success on the ground in this one either. But he should be involved in the passing game. In Week 2, he garnered six targets, Last week, he had four targets while James Conner had four as well before succumbing to injury. Through three weeks, Seattle has allowed the second-most receptions to running backs. Also, with Conner out for the season, Benson should get all the goal line opportunities.
Trey McBride ($9,800): McBride leads the team with 24 targets on the season. He’s scored double-digit FPTS in every contest. He’s going to get fed. The only question is whether he scores a touchdown or not. In two games against Seattle last season, McBride caught 12 of 15 targets for 133 yards in the first meeting, good for 28.3 FPTS. He then hauled in seven of 14 targets for 70 yards (14 FPTS) two weeks later. Through three weeks this season, Seattle has allowed the most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends.
Fades
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($11,000): I hate fading Smith-Njigba because he’s awesome and will likely get peppered with targets, but considering the price tag and expected ownership, I think it’s the right thing to do. What if Arizona makes a concerted effort to shut him down and passes get funneled to Kupp or Horton? What if he only catches six of nine targets for 63 yards? As mentioned in the Captain section, my story is that Walker has a big day. What if Walker scores all the touchdowns? Not only will that be of detriment to the fantasy prospects of Smith-Njigba, but the roster construction will be completely different.
THE OUTCOME
Murray has struggled against the Seahawks defense recently, and I think they give him fits again, especially since the unit will likely make Arizona one-dimensional.
Final Score: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20
