Houston, we have a problem. Through the first three weeks of the season, the Houston Texans, winners of the AFC South in six of the last 10 seasons, have dropped to 0-3. Third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud has been poor, and the run game has been virtually nonexistent. DeMeco Ryans’ seat isn’t hot just yet, but it’s trending in that direction if the team — and quarterback — can’t turn it around. The only bright spot for the Texans has been wideout Nico Collins, whose 14 catches, 181 yards, and two touchdowns pace the team. He’s coming off of an eight-catch, 104-yard, one-score performance last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it came in a loss.
It’s worth holding on to Collins in the short term, even if he won’t put up WR1 numbers as long as Stroud continues to struggle behind an offensive line that has been the league’s sixth-worst pass-blocking unit this season. Houston just doesn’t have other quality wideouts to throw to, especially with Justin Watson (Injured Reserve) and Tank Dell (PUP) still out; throwing to Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, and Christian Kirk isn’t likely to produce better results. Collins has still graded out as a well-above-average target by Pro Football Focus’ standards, although he’s dropped off from the top-three grades he’s produced in each of the last two seasons. Three games is also a tiny sample size; he still ranks above established stars like CeeDee Lamb and DeVonta Smith, who have garnered comparatively less concern.
Plus, the Texans’ schedule should get easier. In the first three weeks of the season, Houston has faced the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have ranked fourth, 14th, and second in PFF coverage grades so far. Though the Texans still have to face the Jaguars once more, likely with an even better Travis Hunter, Collins could have some better luck next week against the Tennessee Titans, whose top cornerback, Roger McCreary, has been mediocre besides a Week 1 interception, and in Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens, who were just diced up by Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown last night. That will take Collins into the Week 6 bye with a larger sample size to evaluate.
If Joe Mixon ever returns from his ankle injury and helps open up the running and play action games, it would allow Stroud — who ranks third-to-last in aggressiveness — to take more chances, and would increase Collins’ fantasy ceiling, since he’s more of a deep threat than a short-yardage possession receiver. Collins has still been pretty good at making nothing from something, averaging 0.7 more yards after the catch per completion than expected, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and Houston’s remaining opponents largely rank in the league’s bottom half in tackling.
