In Week 1, there were nine quarterbacks who threw at least two touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers led the way with four touchdowns. Week 2 was a fantasy goodies bonanza, with 19 quarterbacks throwing at least two touchdowns. Jared Goff was the high man with five touchdowns, while Lamar Jackson threw four. Will the offensive pendulum swing back the other way in Week 3? If only my name were Biff and I knew the future.
Here are my favorite QB/WR stacks for Week 3.
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4. Aaron Rodgers ($5,200) & DK Metcalf ($5,700), Steelers at Patriots
This game features two of the worst pass defenses going head-to-head. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-highest EPA per dropback, while New England ranks third. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez is questionable and could miss his third straight start. If he plays, that obviously improves the unit, but he can’t cover everyone, and it may take some time for him to get up to speed.
Through two games, Rodgers has completed 63.5% of his passes and thrown five touchdowns to two interceptions. His yards per attempt is 7.1, while his yards per completion is a healthy 11.2.
Metcalf leads the team with 13 targets, catching seven for 103 yards and a touchdown. The aDOT is only 5.6, though. In Seattle, that number was in the 12 to 13 range. Twelve of the 13 targets have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. It’s a new world order for Metcalf, but it’s going to take time to build chemistry with Rodgers. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that the aDOT will get closer to 10 sooner rather than later.
The total for this game is a solid 44.5, and with two susceptible pass defenses, there’s a chance this becomes a back-and-forth affair.
3. Drake Maye ($5,300) & Kayshon Boutte ($4,600), Patriots vs. Steelers
Maye showed in Week 2 why so many are optimistic about his prospects. He went 19-of-23 for 230 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing 10 times for 31 yards and a touchdown. That translated to 26.3 FPTS. As mentioned above, this game has a chance to be a back-and-forth affair because both pass defenses have been B. A. D. bad.
The Steelers allowed Justin Fields to put up 218 passing yards and a touchdown on 16-of-22 attempts. Justin Fields! The same Justin Fields who was 3-of-11 for 27 yards against the Buffalo Bills before succumbing to injury. Then in Week 2, Sam Darnold went 22-of-33 for 295 yards and two touchdowns in Pittsburgh. Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold!
Now, it’s only been a two-game sample for the Pittsburgh defense, but the unit showed cracks last season as well. I’ll adjust only when new information presents itself. As of now, this pass defense looks to be Charmin soft.
Boutte had only one target last week, but it resulted in a touchdown. In Week 1, he garnered eight targets, hauling in six for 103 yards. Rhamondre Stevenson led the Patriots in Week 2 with five receptions. The Steelers have allowed only three receptions to running backs this season, the second-lowest total. Last season, the Steelers allowed the 10th-fewest receptions to running backs.
Stefon Diggs received five targets last week and leads the team with 12 on the season. He has an aDOT of 7.9, though. The aDOT for Boutte is 17 this season, and he has one red zone look compared to zero for Diggs.
2. Caleb Williams ($5,600) & Rome Odunze ($5,300), Bears vs. Cowboys
This game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5. Dallas has allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback, while Chicago ranks sixth. Chicago allows 7.1 yards per play, the most in the NFL, while the 6.4 yards per play allowed by Dallas is the third-most. Dallas has missed 19 tackles, tied for fifth-most. Chicago has allowed seven passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. Dallas has allowed 404 air yards on completions, also the most in the league. Chicago has surrendered the highest quarterback rating at 136.9, while Dallas is third at 114.2.
Whew. I need to take a nap now.
Dallas has utilized zone defense 96.2% of the time, and Williams hasn’t been particularly effective against zone this season. His passer rating is 76.6, and his EPA per dropback is -0.14 over 48 attempts. The context, however, is that Williams faced the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions—two very strong defenses. Minnesota currently holds the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback on the season. Dallas has posted the second-highest.
Odunze appears to be the new alpha in the Bears’ attack, garnering nine and 11 targets in the first two games for a team-leading total of 20. He has lined up all over the formation and has been targeted at all depths of the field.
1. Dak Prescott ($5,900) & CeeDee Lamb ($8,000), Cowboys at Bears
Dallas is seventh in pass rate at 64.03%. The 86 pass attempts by Prescott are currently the fourth-most, but Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have played an extra game. Prescott is completing 68.6% of his passes for 549 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
As mentioned above in the Williams/Odunze section, this game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5 and could be a back-and-forth affair because both teams possess porous pass defenses.
Lamb leads the Cowboys with 24 targets, which ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Malik Nabers, who has 25 on the season. Lamb lines up all over the formation and has been peppered throughout all areas of the field. He has yet to score a touchdown, but that streak could come to a halt in Week 3.
