In 2022-23, Manchester City pipped Arsenal to the Premier League title by just five points. In 2023-24, the Sky Blues did it again, topping the Gunners by just two points. Arsenal finished second for a third straight season in 2024-25, though this time 10 points behind Liverpool and three ahead of City. Through the first four matches of the 2025-26 season, the Gunners sit in their favorite position, while the Sky Blues lag behind in eighth.
Regardless of each team’s standing in the table, both are among the giants of England and every clash between them is appointment television. They will meet for the first time this season on Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. local) at the Emirates in London.
Arsenal is a -110 favorite to win and +275 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Manchester City is +290.
Arsenal vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
Arsenal’s new signings have worked out well so far. The big name was former Sporting CP man Viktor Gyökeres, who has banged home three goals despite some early inconsistency. Martín Zubimendi, who came over from Real Sociedad, smashed home a brace of his own in the win over Nottingham Forest, including an absolute screamer of a volley from outside the box in the 32nd minute. Eberechi Eze, who spent the last six seasons at Crystal Palace, assisted Gyökeres’ goal against Forest. Plus, the Gunners’ defense has been expectedly spectacular, letting in just one goal despite allowing the third-most carries into the penalty area. David Raya has saved 11 of 12 opportunities after leading the league in clean sheets last season.
City’s journey has been less smooth. Erling Haaland is on a mission for the Sky Blues, leading the division with five goals, but City has struggled to get much going otherwise, losing to Tottenham and Brighton. Tijjani Reijnders has been the best new arrival, contributing a goal and an assist, but no player besides Haaland has scored multiple goals and only Jeremy Doku has more than one assist. The Sky Blues have steadied in the back somewhat since acquiring Gianluigi Donnarumma from Paris Saint-Germain, as Donnarumma has saved all three shots on target he’s faced, but they’ve still allowed the 11th-most expected goals in the league, as well as the fourth-most shots on target per 90 minutes. They might get a slight boost in the defense if John Stones, who missed the wins over Manchester United and Napoli, can return.
Given the talent in both teams’ attack, I expect goals. As sharp as Arsenal’s defense has been, it hasn’t been quite as impenetrable as it was last season, when it allowed a league-low 34 goals and ranked near the top of the leaderboard in virtually every major defensive stat. The Gunners could get defender Ben White back, which would allow Jurriën Timber to slide back to the bench, but club captain Martin Ødegaard is also in doubt after suffering a shoulder injury in the win over Nottingham Forest. With an injury-riddled Arsenal side potentially in flux without its captain, it’s easy to see a scenario in which Doku’s speed and Haaland’s clinical finishing result in a goal for Manchester City. It’s also easy to envision Eze getting the best of inexperienced Abdukodir Khusanov and squaring it to Gyökeres for an easy finish.
With both Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka likely to miss the contest, I’m not confident enough in Arsenal to pick it at minus-odds on the Moneyline, but the Sky Blues haven’t shown me enough consistency this season for me to believe that they’ll win, either. The teams’ matchups over the last three seasons have resulted in three draws, three City wins, and two Gunners wins, though the latter both came at the Emirates in the last two seasons. I’ll suggest merely that both teams score and that at least one team scores multiple times, though I think Arsenal will squeak it out.
