For the last several seasons, Manchester City had made the Premier League seem inevitable. That Liverpool managed to beat the Sky Blues to the title last season seemed a surprise at the start of the season, but it feels like a foregone conclusion that the Reds will eventually lift the 2025-26 title.
Liverpool is one of just three Premier League teams without a defeat thus far and the only one with four wins from four matches. The Reds lead Arsenal, Tottenham, and Bournemouth by three points and have faced a difficult schedule, beating both the Gunners and the Cherries. They’ll next face Everton in the first Merseyside Derby of the season at 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday (12:30 p.m. local).
Liverpool is a -225 favorite to win and +370 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Toffees are +600 on the Moneyline.
Liverpool vs. Everton prediction, pick
Liverpool made the biggest transfer of the summer, acquiring Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen, then topped it on deadline day, reaching a long-awaited deal for Newcastle’s Alexander Isak. That’s not to mention other less-heralded but still impressive moves, including prying Milos Kerkez away from Bournemouth, Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt, and Jeremie Frimpong from Leverkusen. Wirtz has played all four Premier League matches for the Reds so far, while Isak only made his team debut with a 57-minute showing against Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday. Ekitike, Mohammed Salah, and Cody Gakpo have three goal contributions each in the Premier League, and the back line has allowed the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, though Alisson has saved just three of the seven shots on target he’s faced.
After being on the fringes of the relegation battle in the past few seasons, Everton seems to be on more comfortable footing this season. The Toffees have been excellent in defense, allowing the third-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes and tied for the fourth-fewest goals. As a result, they sit sixth in the table on seven points after beating Brighton and Wolves and playing out a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa. Former Manchester City forward Jack Grealish has been brilliant in his first four games since agreeing to a season-long loan, being named Premier League Player of the Month with a league-leading four assists. One of those assists has gone to Iliman Ndiaye, who leads the team with a pair of goals. Former Chelsea man Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has a goal and an assist, and English veteran Jordan Pickford has an 83.3% save percentage.
For all of its wins, Liverpool hasn’t been all that dominant this season. The Reds needed two goals in the 88th minute or later to beat the Cherries in the opening match, a 100th-minute winner by 15-year-old Rio Ngumoha to beat the Magpies, an 83rd-minute goal against Arsenal, a 95th-minute penalty to beat Burnley, and a 92nd-minute winner to beat Los Colchoneros. Liverpool has actually only been the league’s fourth-best team by expected goal difference, so it’s definitely beatable. The Reds’ late-game heroics remind me of Bayer Leverkusen’s 2023-24 invincible team, which equalized or won in stoppage time several times before finally losing the Europa League final to Atalanta. Just as Die Werkself eventually lost, Liverpool, too, is due for a draw.
Given the Toffees’ easy schedule so far this season, it’s hard to analyze them, but their 3-2 win over Wolves on the road was a fairly impressive result, even if Wolverhampton looks likely to suffer the drop. They played Liverpool tough in both matches last season, drawing in the final game at Goodison Park and dropping a narrow 1-0 decision at Anfield despite having a less talented roster. Though they brought in nearly 130 million Euros’ worth of players, only two of their regular starters weren’t with the team last season, while the Reds are trying to integrate three new starters at essential positions. The additional chemistry and motivation will propel Everton to a draw against its far more storied crosstown rival.
