Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
It’s a small slate on Thursday, as per usual. There’s limited players to choose from, but here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook: Aaron Judge, Max Muncy and Jackson Chourio.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Aaron Judge 1+ Home Run (+195)
Let’s just ease our way into these props, alright? I know it’s not sexy to take Aaron Judge in a home run props article, but the man’s numbers against LHPs are too amazing to ignore. To wit, Judge sports an .841 expected slugging percentage against southpaws this season — a figure that is almost 175 points higher than the second-best qualified mark in MLB. Specific to tonight, we’re not talking about any ol’ left-hander, either. We’re talking about Cade Povich. Across 101.2 innings of work in 2025, Povich has pitched to a 5.71 xERA and he’s surrendered 1.50 opponent long balls per nine. In their careers, Povich and Judge have faced each other five times. Povich has walked Judge three times and conceded two home runs. That’s right. When Judge puts a ball in play off the Orioles’ lefty, it’s always left the park.
Jackson Chourio 1+ Home Run (+453)
Without question, Jackson Chourio has been at his best this season when getting the opportunity to face-off with left-handed pitching. To wit, in 136 plate appearances within the split, Chourio is slashing .352/.404/.592 with a .240 ISO and a 176 wRC+. Not too shabby. On Thursday, the lefty in question will be Yusei Kikuchi, who just so happens to be in the midst of a full-on spiral since the All-Star break. In his last 54.2 innings of work, Kikuchi has registered a 6.09 ERA and he’s conceded 1.48 opponent home runs per nine. For 2025 as a whole, Kikuchi has unsurprisingly given up 22 of his 23 home runs to opposing RHBs. This all seems to be lining up in Chourio’s favor and the sophomore has been smoking the ball since coming off the IL in late August.
Max Muncy 1+ Home Run (+447)
On a larger slate, I probably wouldn’t be picking on Logan Webb, who is nearing the end of an amazing season. However, there’s a couple things to remember here. First and foremost, Dodger Stadium has been a breeding ground for home runs in 2025. In fact, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, Los Angeles has been by far the easiest place to hit a long ball this season, way outpacing Camden Yards and Citizens Bank Park, which rank second and third, respectively. Webb also just surrendered six earned runs to the Dodgers this past weekend and his career stats versus Los Angeles aren’t great. In particular, Webb has had his issues with Max Muncy, who owns a 1.035 OPS off the RHP over 32 at-bats. That includes three home runs. Overall, Muncy’s been fantastic when healthy this season, possessing a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.395) and a 95th percentile hard hit rate (52.9%).
