The Indiana Fever have been nothing if not resilient this season. After losing the face of their franchise, Caitlin Clark, to a season-ending groin injury right before the All-Star break, and then three of their other guards to injury as well, the fact that the Fever have pushed the Atlanta Dream to a winner-take-all Game 3 in the first round is a surprising, spectacular achievement.
The game tips off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. The Dream are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-340 Moneyline), with the total set at 154 points. Indiana is +270 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Fever at Dream prediction, pick
So far, this series has demonstrated the volatile nature of shooting variability. In Game 1, Atlanta was sharp enough, making 38.6% of its field goal attempts, 31.8% of its threes, and 90.5% of its free throws while the Fever shot 34.9% from the field, 13.3% from deep, and 75.9% from the free throw line. If Indiana had simply shot 34.6% from the three-point line like its season average, it would’ve been a three-point margin, but the Fever’s poor shooting night was enough for the Dream to emerge with a 12-point victory. Then, the script flipped in Game 2: the Dream posted just 37.9-26.3-50 shooting splits, while Indiana shot 42.9% from the field, 42.1% from deep, and a perfect 15-for-15 from the free throw line to win by 17.
Which team’s shots will be falling in Game 3? Atlanta will need more out of 2022 first overall pick Rhyne Howard, who’s just nine-for-26 (34.6%) from the field so far. The 25-year-old ended the season on quite the roll after returning from a hyperextended knee, averaging 19.9 points, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 steals per game on 43-36-95 shooting splits across her final 13 contests as the Dream picked up 10 wins. Allisha Gray, too, is just nine-for-32 (28.1%) so far. Atlanta’s leading scorer in Game 2 was actually reserve sharpshooter Te-Hina PaoPao, who managed 11 points in 14 minutes as she made three of her five triples. PaoPao became a more important piece of the rotation across the team’s last 18 games, averaging 23.7 minutes per game across that span and draining 32.5% of her triples, but she barely played in Game 1.
The Fever, meanwhile, are Kelsey Mitchell’s team. Mitchell carried the load after Aari McDonald and Sydney Colson both suffered season-ending injuries in the August 7 loss to the Phoenix Mercury, averaging 21.5 points per game on 47-45-83 shooting splits thereafter, and she was the only Indiana player to show up in the Game 1 defeat, dropping 27 points. She’s accounted for basically all of Indiana’s net rating this season; the Fever have outscored opponents by 5.1 points per 100 possessions with her on the floor and been narrowly outscored without her, and all but one of her 10 most frequent partnerships have a positive net rating. She’s stepped up while 2023 first overall pick Aliyah Boston has had a quiet end to the season, averaging 10.0 points per game over her last five games of the regular season and just 11.5 so far in the playoffs. Indiana also needs more from Lexie Hull, who’s just five-for-19 (26.3%) so far these playoffs.
Two-point shooting will be the Dream’s key to victory tonight; in the last nine regular season games after losing Cunningham, the Fever allowed the fourth-highest shooting percentage in the restricted area and the highest percentages in the non-restricted paint and the midrange, though they were able to limit the damage somewhat by dominating the glass. Atlanta, meanwhile, has stifled opponents inside, allowing the lowest percentage in the restricted area and the third-lowest in the non-restricted paint and midrange. It’ll be up to Boston to limit some of the damage inside while trying to get the better of the Dream’s massive center duo of Naz Hillmon and Brittney Griner. Hillmon, who had 16 points, nine rebounds, and three blocks in Game 1, will also be critical for Atlanta offensively.
Ultimately, though anything can happen in the postseason, it’s hard to imagine Howard and Gray continuing to shoot as badly as they have, while Hull’s poor shooting has been a season-long trend. The Dream have been dominant defensively all season, so while Indiana might shoot somewhat better than it did in Game 1, expecting it to suddenly turn lights-out would be a fool’s errand. This game shouldn’t be particularly close.
