Major League Baseball has a busy slate of action lined up for Wednesday with 10 games under the lights, starting at 6:40 p.m. or later. The weather could be an issue in a few places, but we should still be able to chase down some strong home run props to consider. Coors Field is on the board, and several games are taking place indoors, if you’re looking to limit the weather impact. After looking at the matchups, game environments, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Wednesday night come from Jarren Duran, Ben Rice and Jakob Marsee.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and aim for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators that can point us in the right direction, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green on a given night.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props on Wednesday.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jarren Duran to record 1+ home runs (+620)
Duran and the Red Sox are in one of the two early games that get started just before 7:00 p.m. ET. They have a favorable matchup against Athletics righty Mason Barnett, and I love getting Duran at these long-shot odds. At over +620, his home run props are definitely a swing for the fences, but one that I think brings great upside.
Duran has 15 homers in his 147 games this season after breaking out with 21 homers last year. His batting average has dipped, but he has been hitting the ball well lately, and his splits are tilted hard towards Fenway Park.
Nine of his 15 homers have come at home this season, where he has a .288 batting average and .380 wOBA. Three of his homers have also come in his last 19 games, and he’s hitting .265 with a 46% hard hit rate over that span, along with a solid average exit velocity of 91.8 miles per hour. He has five hard hit batted ball events in his last four games, including this pinch-hit smash on Saturday.
Duran will be on the strong side of his splits against righty Mason Barnett, who has given up 12 runs on 18 hits over 12 2/3 innings in his first three starts in the majors. Even though he has only given up one home run, he has given up five barrels in under 13 innings. At Triple-A, he had a 6.13 ERA and 5.53 RIP while giving up 17 homers in 25 games for the Las Vegas Aviators.
The Sox don’t have a ton of power options in their regular lineup, or a streaking superstar to back, but Duran has been hitting the ball well lately, especially at home, and he’ll likely be in a prime lineup spot in this favorable matchup on Wednesday night.
Ben Rice to record 1+ home runs (+376)
The Yankees hammered out 10 runs to win on Tuesday night, despite their bullpen continuing to struggle. Rice went 3-for-4 with a double in the game and continues to hit the ball extremely well coming down the stretch of his first full season in the majors.
Rice has 23 homers in his 129 games and is hitting .248 with a .350 wOBA overall. Against righties, he’s hitting .259 with a .361 wOBA. He has 17 of his 23 homers on that side of the split.
Rice has hit .298 in September with just one home run, but five doubles and a 58.1% hard hit rate. His home run props come at good value since he hasn’t been smashing a ton of homers lately, but he still is hitting the ball well enough to be a good play at this number.
His most recent homer came just over a week ago off Max Scherzer:
On Wednesday night, he takes on Taj Bradley and the Twins in Minneapolis, as long as the weather forecast doesn’t take a turn for the worse. In his 25 starts between the Rays and Twins, Bradley has a 4.88 ERA and 4.24 FIP. He has served up 16 homers this season, and lefties have nine of those big flies, leading to a .324 wOBA against him.
Rice has gone 4-for-6 against Bradley with a pair of doubles in their past meetings, so I think he has a good chance to square one up and go yard Wednesday night.
Jakob Marsee to record 1+ home runs (+536)
There is potential for rain at Coors Field tonight, which could cause a delay. It looks like they’ll be able to get the full game in, though, so Marsee’s home run props are still a solid play at this value number.
Marsee hit 14 homers in his 98 games in Triple-A this season and has hit five in his 44 games in the majors. The 24-year-old lefty has quickly become one of the top hitters in the Marlins’ order. He’s hitting .319 in his 44 games with a .396 wOBA and 44% hard hit rate, and even though he only has one homer in his last 25 games, I’m still backing him to go yard on Wednesday. He’s still hitting the ball well and came close with this drive on Tuesday.
He has a good matchup against Rockies’ starting pitcher McCade Brown, who is 0-4 in his four starts with a 9.88 ERA, 7.39 FIP and three homers allowed in 13 2/3 innings in the majors. Lefties like Marsee are hitting .357 with a .468 wOBA against Brown, so Marsee could be set for success on Wednesday night.
He’s a long shot, but Coors Field and the matchup make him a great value piece to consider in your home run props.
