These are my picks to win every Week 9 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Straight-Up Picks with Confidence Levels
High Confidence
Chiefs over Jets
The Chiefs should take care of business at home against the Jets this week. They have had two brutal road trips in a row, losing to the Seahawks and Broncos. Kansas City needs to get back to winning ways, and this is the perfect spot to do so. The Chiefs are the better team on both sides of the ball, and there is a massive coaching advantage for Kansas City.
Jaguars over Ravens
The Jaguars keep getting favorable matchups and taking advantage of them. They faced the Colts in the middle of a fire sale last week, and now face the Ravens with Joe Fagnano at quarterback. The Jaguars’ defense should sell out to stop Derrick Henry and make Fagnano try to beat them. Jacksonville should handle business in this spot.
49ers over Raiders
The 49ers are coming off a much-needed bye week and should be ready to roll against the Raiders. Las Vegas is coming off an emotional win on the other side of the country, while the 49ers should be fresh and much healthier than they were before the bye. San Francisco still has arguably the best offense in the league and should roll here.
Seahawks over Cardinals
The Seahawks are starting Drew Lock this week, but he shouldn’t be much of a downgrade compared to how Sam Darnold has been playing. Jacoby Brissett is on his way out of town. While Gardner Minshew gave them a boost last week, that might not be sustainable. Not to mention, Seattle still has a top-five defense in the NFL. If Lock can just stay out of trouble, the Seahawks should get the win in this spot.
Lions over Dolphins
The Lions are coming off a big win over the Vikings. They should keep the momentum going in this spot against Miami. After getting their first win, the Dolphins fell back to Earth last week. The offense still has real issues, and they don’t have the firepower needed to keep up with the Detroit offense.
Medium Confidence
Rams over Commanders
The Rams have now won back-to-back games after dominating the Chargers last week. They can finally get above .500 with a win over the Commanders this week. Washington’s defense ranks 21st in defensive EPA/dropback and should struggle to slow down Matthew Stafford’s passing attack. The Rams should keep the momentum going and win this one.
Cowboys over Colts
The Cowboys choked away last week’s game against Arizona. Luckily for them, the NFC East is still anybody’s division. The Cowboys should have too much offensive firepower for the Colts this week. Indianapolis is selling off players and looked completely lifeless last week against the Jaguars. It’s hard to see Daniel Jones keeping up with that Dallas offense.
Texans over Chargers
The Texans are in desperation mode. They need to rattle off a lot of wins in a hurry to get back into the AFC playoff picture. There is no better place to start than against the winless Chargers. Houston is coming off a bye and should be completely prepared for this matchup. The Houston defense should dominate, requiring C.J. Stroud to do the bare minimum to win this game.
Bills over Vikings
The Bills have the best record in the AFC and the Vikings are tied for the best record in the NFC. However, they have done it in very different ways. Buffalo has an elite offense, while Minnesota has the best defense in the league. This should be a great coaching battle between Brian Flores and Joe Brady. However, I will back Josh Allen to make the winning plays over Carson Wentz or Kyler Murray.
Bears over Buccaneers
The Bears’ offense has been great this season. That unit ranks in the top eight in the NFL in EPA/play and success rate. The Tampa Bay defense has been great the past few weeks, but they have also had some favorable matchups. The Tampa Bay offense has been able to scrape by without doing much of anything the past two weeks, but that should change on Sunday night. The Bears have the better offense and home-field advantage, which should get them the win.
Coin-Flip Games
Giants over Eagles
The Giants are looking to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia for the first time since 2013. The Giants are in first place in the NFC East and are coming off a bye week. The Eagles are making a change at quarterback to Joe Milton. While Milton provides a different skill set than Tanner McKee, he turns the ball over way too often. The Giants should have a good game plan here and get a massive win in Philadelphia.
Saints over Browns
The Browns are likely starting Shedeur Sanders at quarterback. Sanders was really poor in his rookie season, and there is no reason to think he will be at the level Deshaun Watson has played at this season. Watson has willed this Browns team to several wins this season, and it’s hard to see Sanders executing those same game-winning drives. This Cleveland defense is not as strong on the road. The Browns should drop one on the road in New Orleans.
Patriots over Packers
The Patriots have won four of their past five games and are looking to keep the momentum going. They return home this week, where they are undefeated so far this season. These two teams are quite well-matched, but the home-field advantage should be the difference in Drake Maye outdueling Jordan Love.
Broncos over Panthers
The Broncos are coming off a huge win over the Chiefs. They should keep the momentum going here. The Panthers have lost two games in a row and should struggle to get stops in this game. Carolina ranks 19th in defensive EPA/play and defensive success rate this season. The better defense should get the win in this interesting matchup.
Falcons over Bengals
This is a really tough matchup to predict. One week, the Falcons look like the best team in the NFL, and the next, they can’t even complete a pass. Granted, they played in brutal weather conditions last week against the Buccaneers. However, this inconsistency was a problem for Michael Penix Jr. dating back to last season. Meanwhile, it’s the Bengals’ defense that has been quite inconsistent this season.
There are a lot of variables in this game, mainly the fact that it’s taking place overseas. Whoever travels better could end up winning the game. However, if I must pick, I’ll back Atlanta to bounce back and upset the Bengals at the Bernabéu.
