This is the finale of a three-game series in Baltimore between the Orioles and visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
Johan Oviedo is scheduled to pitch for Pittsburgh while Cade Povich is slated to start for Baltimore.
Pirates at Orioles prediction, preview
Johan Oviedo missed all of last season due to a lat injury. He’s pitched 20 innings this season and posted a 2.7 ERA. The fastball is averaging 95.1 mph but the FIP is much higher at 3.99. The BABIP is only .205 while the strand rate is 80.2%. He’s allowed only two home runs and the strikeout rate is 28.9%, but the walk rate is unsurprisingly 13.3%. Oviedo has done a good job limiting hard contact in the small sample size, as the average exit velocity is 88 mph, barrel rate is 4.3% and the hard hit rate is 37%. The swinging strike rate is 13% but the chase rate is only 24.5%.
Oviedo has reverse splits as righties have been more effective against him. The K-BB% is 5.1% lower than against lefties and the FIP is 5.83 compared to 2.27, primarily because both home runs have come off the bat of righties. He’s been better on the road as the K-BB% is 19.4% vs. 12.8% at home. It’s only 20 innings, though.
In five starts, Oviedo has not allowed more than two earned runs yet. He’s gone five innings three times. This will be his first time facing Baltimore this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Orioles rank fourth in strikeout rate and eighth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 17th in MLB.
Cade Povich has pitched 96 innings this season and posted a 5.16 ERA. The FIP is lower at 4.29 as the BABIP is an elevated .337 while the strand rate is 68.3%. The strikeout rate is fine at 24.6% but the walk rate is high at 8.4%. He’s allowed 16 home runs. The Statcast numbers are not pretty, as the average exit velocity is 91.7 mph, barrel rate is 12.1% and the hard hit rate is 48.9%.
12 of the 16 home runs have come off the bat of righties. 12 of the home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 20.6% against lefties and 14.8% against righties. The walk rate is 10% at home and the HR/9 is a whopping 2.1, compared to 6.4% and 0.81 on the road.
In 17 starts, Povich allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He’s gone at least six innings four times. This will be his first time facing Pittsburgh this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Pirates have the second-highest strikeout rate, the 27th-best ISO, and rank 30th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Pittsburgh ranks 26th in FIP, while Baltimore ranks 11th.
Pirates at Orioles pick, best bet
The Pirates are pretty terrible on offense against left-handed pitching, but Povich gets hit so hard and has struggled at home that I’m going to side with Pittsburgh here. Bryan Reynolds hasn’t had the best season, but the ISO is .200 against lefties. I am worried about the Pirates’ bullpen, but I think Oviedo can at least go five innings and shut down the Orioles.
