The Sun are hosting the Dream on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is favored by 13 points and this game carries a total of 156.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Sun and the Dream and give a pick for the game.
Sun vs. Dream preview, prediction
The Sun and the Dream are going head-to-head for the second straight game Wednesday and this is the final game of the regular season for both clubs. In the first leg of this mini series between Connecticut and Atlanta on Monday, the Dream blew out the Sun 87-62. This season, Atlanta is 3-1 vs. Connecticut with a 22-point average margin of victory.
While this 11-32 Sun team is eliminated from the playoffs and has nothing at stake tonight, the No.3 seeded Dream are fighting to steal the No.2 seed from the Aces. The two clubs currently have the same record, but Las Vegas owns the tiebreaker over Atlanta. So, in order for the Dream to secure the No.2 seed, Atlanta needs to beat the Sun tonight and Las Vegas needs to lose it’s regular season finale vs. the Sparks tomorrow.
The problem is, the Aces are the hottest team in the WNBA, as winners of 15 in a row and Los Angeles will have nothing to play for tomorrow, as the club was just eliminated from the playoffs last night. Still, the Sparks will have homecourt for that contest and anything can happen, so the Dream should still be very motivated to win tonight’s meeting with the Sun.
Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has been dominant with a 16-5 record and leading the league in net rating. Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray have been leading the team as an elite backcourt, averaging 19.1 and 18.7 PPG during this stretch, respectively. Plus, Brionna Jones has been great in the frontcourt during this span, averaging 12.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game at center for the Dream.
After being the laughing stock of the WNBA in the first half of the season, the Sun have improved since the All-Star break with an 8-13 record. However, Connecticut still ranks 10th in net rating during this time and promising rookie Leila Lacan (personal) will miss her second consecutive game tonight, marking her 18th absence of the season. Ranking in second in plus/minus for the Sun this season, Lacan has been huge for the team on both offense and defense, and not having the 21-year-old available tonight puts Connecticut in an extremely tough spot against this Dream team that should contend for a championship this postseason. The Sun are an awful 2-16 with Lacan inactive this season and as noted above, Atlanta cruised to an easy 25-point victory over Connecticut with the rookie sidelined Monday.
Sun vs. Dream pick, best bet
With Lacan out and the Sun having nothing to play for, there isn’t much hope for Connecticut tonight vs. the Dream, who are still trying to improve their seed. Atlanta should be favorited by more than 13 points and the club is an outstanding bet to cover this spread.
As mentioned above, the Dream are 3-1 vs. the Sun this season with a 22-point average margin of victory and Atlanta is an excellent 27-15-2 ATS this season, which is tied for the best ATS record in the league with the Valkyries.
