The Mercury are hosting the Sparks on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 7.5 points and this game carries a total of 172.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup between the Mercury and the Sparks and give a pick for the game.
Mercury vs. Sparks preview, prediction
The Mercury have clinched a playoff berth and the club is very likely to finish as the No. 4 seed for the playoffs with only two games remaining in the regular season. Phoenix is two games ahead of the No. 5-seeded Liberty and the only way the Mercury can move up to the No. 3 seed is if they win their final two games and the No. 3-seeded Aces lose their final two games, which is very unlikely, as Las Vegas is riding a 14-game win streak and hosting the dreadful Sky tonight.
Meanwhile, the Sparks are currently outside the playoff picture as the No. 9 seed and 1.5 games behind the Storm for the final playoff spot. Los Angeles owns the tiebreaker over Seattle, so if the Sparks win their final two games and the Storm lose their final two games, the Sparks will earn the No. 8 seed.
Tuesday is a must-win for Los Angeles and it is very poor timing, as star guard Kelsey Plum is questionable with a foot injury. This season, she is leading the Sparks with 19.7 PPG and Plum has only missed one game. The guard has rarely found herself on the injury report this season, so this injury is obviously a real concern. Given Los Angeles’ season is on the line, one would have to imagine Plum suits up, but that doesn’t mean she will be as effective as usual. In the lone game Plum missed this season, Los Angeles lost to the Storm by 31 points. If she is out or limited, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens and Rickea Jackson will all have to step it up as scorers to keep the Sparks alive.
The Mercury have a clean injury report for tonight and the team is led by Alyssa Thomas, who has been outstanding since the All-Star break, averaging a near triple-double of 16.4 points, 10.4 rebounds and a league-high 9.0 assists per game. Kahleah Copper has also been great for Phoenix over this time, scoring 16.1 PPG.
The Mercury are 3-0 vs. the Sparks this season, but these games have been competitive, as Phoenix has just a 5.3 PPG average margin of victory in the season series.
Mercury vs. Sparks pick, best bet
While this is a much more important game for the Sparks, Plum’s foot injury is worrisome and with her banged up, Los Angeles should fall to 0-4 vs. the Mercury this season.
Phoenix hasn’t been the greatest at covering this season with a 21-20-1 ATS record, but backing the more healthy Mercury to cover this 7.5-point spread is the right call, especially with this game in Phoenix. At home this season, the Mercury are 15-6.
