The Broncos made some major moves at running back this offseason, by drafting RJ Harvey ($5,800) with a second-round pick and signing J.K. Dobbins ($5,500) to a one-year, $2.75 million deal. Harvey had an excellent four-year career at UCF, averaging 6.5 YPC and he led the Big 12 with 25 touchdowns from scrimmage in his final season.
As for Dobbins, despite suffering many major injuries in his first few seasons in the NFL, the back proved his doubters wrong last season. With the Chargers, Dobbins rushed for 906 yards and nine touchdowns in his 13 games, both of which set career-highs. Dobbins averaged a solid 4.6 YPC and he handled 52.9% of the running back carries for Los Angeles while logging 60.7% of the snaps. Furthermore, Dobbins ranked 11th in rushes for 10+ yards (27) and he finished 18th in FPTS per snap among running backs (0.37), better than the likes of Aaron Jones and Chubba Hubbard, just to name a few.
J.K. Dobbins’ strong season flew under the radar and he is still only 26-years-old. RJ Harvey certainly has the tools to be a great back at the NFL level, and the rookie becoming the Broncos’ featured back at some point this season is very likely, but in the early stages of this season, the veteran Dobbins leading the way is the expectation. Dobbins is the No. 1 back on Denver’s depth chart heading into this season and giving Harvey time to find his footing in the NFL is very logical. The rookie may see more passing down work than Dobbins to start, but the latter should see the bulk of the carries this Sunday vs. the Titans, which is reflected in these back’s rushing props for this season opener.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Dobbins’ props are at 11.5 carries and 43.5 rushing yards, while Harvey’s are at 8.5 carries and 35.5 rushing yards. As for props to score a touchdown, Dobbins also has a slight edge in that market at +155 for an anytime touchdown, while Harvey is at +170.
While going with Dobbins over Harvey isn’t exciting, its the right move for Week 1 and Dobbins is a solid RB3/FLEX to start for season-long formats. For DFS, Dobbins also has appeal, as he likely will come with low ownership and is only $5,500. The Broncos should rely on their running game as 8.5-point home favorites over Tennessee and, in the four games he competed as a home favorite last season with the Chargers, Dobbins was awesome with 17.5 FPTS per game.
