Ollie Gordon II has carried Miami’s backfield since De’Von Achane’s season-ending knee injury, but the Dolphins’ offense around him keeps changing. Malik Willis is on injured reserve with a core injury, so Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start when Miami visits Indianapolis. Gordon has also cooled off, posting 6.9 and 7.4 PPR points in his last two games. Find out whether you should start or sit Ollie Gordon II in Week 10.
Ollie Gordon II Start or Sit Advice for Week 10
His workload is secure. Gordon has handled 63.5% of Miami’s carries since Week 4 and has logged at least 16 carries in every game since Week 5, including 25 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown against the Jets in Week 7. Jaylen Wright is back at practice, but he has averaged just 1.9 yards per carry this season.
Gordon also owns the scoring chances. He has 24 red zone carries and four rushing touchdowns, and he drew three more red zone carries against Detroit last week. That role keeps his weekly floor intact even in a struggling offense.
Indianapolis is a favorable matchup. The Colts allow 25.3 PPR points per game to running backs against a league average of 22.2, along with 4.81 yards per carry compared with a league mark of 4.15. They have given up 111.7 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns to the position, both well above the league averages of 93.0 and 6.2.
That figure needs some context. The Colts have faced Kansas City, Baltimore, Houston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Dallas, a group running for 22% more yards than the league average against them, so the schedule has pushed those numbers up. Even so, the Colts’ front is thinner than it was. Indianapolis traded DeForest Buckner before Week 9, and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery and linebackers Jaylon Carlies and Akeem Davis-Gaither have not practiced this week.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Ollie Gordon II in Week 10
Miami’s offense is the problem. The Dolphins score just 15.8 points per game against a league average of 23.0, convert 47.6% of their red zone trips and throw for 164.8 yards per game. They have also allowed 24 sacks. A first-time starter at quarterback is unlikely to fix any of that, and defenses can load up against the run if McCord cannot make them pay.
The line has its own issues. Center Aaron Brewer has not practiced this week with a concussion.
Gordon’s recent efficiency reflects the situation. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry on 19 carries against New England and 3.4 on 16 carries against Detroit, and he did not score in either game despite five combined red zone carries. The Colts have also faced just 26 red zone carries from opposing backs, below the league average of 32.4, so the scoring chances may not come as easily as the rest of their numbers suggest.
His receiving role offers little help. Gordon has 10 targets and 23 receiving yards all season, so when the ground game stalls, he has no fallback.
Fantasy Outlook for Ollie Gordon II in Week 10
Gordon is a Strong Start in Week 10. He has the backfield to himself, his red zone role is locked in, and the Colts have given up plenty on the ground even after accounting for their schedule.
Temper expectations for his ceiling. Miami’s quarterback change and limited scoring keep this from being a smash spot, and he will likely need a touchdown to clear his recent outputs. Still, his volume makes him a reliable weekly starter for fantasy managers, including those covering Eagles, Buccaneers, Bears and Broncos players on bye.