Fantasy Football Must-Start Players for Week 10

Week 10 means that the NFL regular season is officially entering the second half. The race to the fantasy playoffs is reaching a critical juncture, and hopefully, you find yourself in position to push for the postseason. Whether you’re a returning reader or a newcomer, welcome to my weekly fantasy must-start column. I’ll be here for the entire season to bring you a selection of the players you should want in your fantasy football lineups in season-long and/or DFS formats. These guys are screaming starts for one reason or another – it could be an advantageous matchup, a recent hot streak or a value salary in DraftKings contests, among others – so we’re looking to find an edge through the lens of actual analysis. I just want to help you win your week!

Let’s jump in with some must-start players for fantasy football in Week 10.

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Fantasy Football Week 10 Must-Start Players

QB: Tyler Shough, Saints vs. Panthers ($5,600)

You can pick your poison between Bryce Young and Tyler Shough this week, but either way, I want a part of this potential shootout between the Panthers and Saints. The total is set at 48.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I expect the points to blow past that mark as two pass-happy offenses take on poor defenses. Ultimately, the difference for me in the decision came down to Shough’s slight rushing upside and the $200 difference between he and Young’s DFS salaries. The Saints’ QB1 averages 19.7 FPPG and has 1,986 yards with a 14-6 TD-INT ratio, also running for 162 yards and two touchdowns as well. He has four weeks of 20+ DKFP and two games of 27+ DKFP under his belt across eight contests, and while he hasn’t really popped since Week 6, he still has a high ceiling he could access here. Shough’s 42.8 dropbacks per game rank second among all quarterbacks, so there’s plenty of volume to be had. Now, he’ll be throwing to both Chris Olave and first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson, who should get more involved as the season goes on. Both of these teams rank top-four in pass rate, so offensive fireworks should be in store on Sunday in this divisional clash.

RB: Emmett Johnson, Chiefs at Falcons ($4,700)

Well, well, well. With Kenneth Walker III suffering a groin injury that has since ruled him out for Week 10 against the Falcons, the Chiefs’ backfield will be led by fifth-round rookie Emmett Johnson. He popped in fantasy two weeks ago, recording 28.3 DKFP behind one 15-yard rush and five catches for 128 yards and a touchdown, with the score coming on a 73-yard house call. The Nebraska product clearly has the juice, and now, he gets the chance to play a massive role in a soft matchup. For what it’s worth, he’s averaging 4.27 YPC with a 94th-percentile stuff rate and a 96th-percentile mark in missed tackles forced per attempt – while the sample size is tiny with just 26 carries in eight games, he’s a legitimate talent who could shine given the opportunity. Now, he enters an ideal matchup against a soft Atlanta defense. The Falcons allow 25.2 FPPG to RBs this season, which ranks seventh most, also conceding the ninth-most points per touch (0.89). This defense is also conceding 109.1 rushing yards per game at a clip of 4.65 YPC to running backs, with 6.1 targets and 4.8 receptions per contest allowed to the position for good measure. This is a great spot for Johnson, and while he’ll surely be in more DFS lineups than those he isn’t played in, you also risk being left behind by the field if he pops off. Given the salary at just $4,700 – rivaling names like Bam Knight, MarShawn Lloyd and Tyjae Spears – there’s literally no better play on the board in DFS given his opportunity this week.

WR: Deebo Samuel Sr., 49ers at Cowboys ($5,500)

I need to shake off some bad luck at wideout this week, but I’m still going with Deebo Samuel Sr. based on two key factors. The first is that the 49ers’ receiver room is practically dust. Mike Evans is still out and De’Zhaun Stribling remains on IR, so it’s Samuel leading the way alongside Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Watkins and Brandin Cooks. Samuel is the best talent of the group, and while he’s past his prime, he does average 12.3 FPPG across five appearances this season. He had three or more targets in four of those five and scored three touchdowns, also handling at least one rush attempt in all of those contests. He should see modest usage with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle also earning targets, but he’s clearly the best actual wide receiver available for Brock Purdy. The second factor is the matchup. Lick your chops – San Francisco plays the Cowboys this week. Dallas’ 34.9 FPPG allowed to WRs ranks eighth most, with wideouts earning the seventh-highest target market share and eighth-highest receiving yards market share against this defense. The Cowboys’ defense gives up the fifth-highest touchdown rate and second-highest EPA/pass in the NFL, which makes this a very appealing matchup for the Niners’ pass-catchers.

TE: Kyle Pitts Sr., Falcons vs. Chiefs ($3,800)

I like the potential value you can get in DFS formats with Kyle Pitts Sr. this week. The Chiefs’ defense is one of the best in the NFL, but they’re also a little bit weak against tight ends. In fact, the 17.0 FPPG allowed to TEs is sixth most in the league, with the sixth-highest target market share and fifth-highest receiving yards market share going to the position. Furthermore, Kansas City allows 8.6 targets and 6.6 receptions to tight ends, which fall fifth and tied for third. Pitts’ numbers have been hot-and-cold this season with three weeks of double-digit DKFP and five in the single-digit range, but there is one constant lately. Since Week 5, he’s seen at least five targets in every game with a 17.5% target share, nearly double the 9.1% target share that sank him in Weeks 1-4. His 7.9 FPPG aren’t anything too fun, but such is the nature of the position he plays in fantasy football unless you’re going with the truly elite names. This is a nice matchup for him, especially since the Falcons should trail against Kansas City, forcing Michael Penix Jr. to throw the ball. Pitts could become a value.