The winner of Group C in the 2025 FIBA EuroBasket group stage is going to come down to the last day. Both Greece and Spain have secured their spots in the Round of 16, but they still have a chance to win the group on the final day. They’ll be fighting hard for that last spot on Thursday.
The Greeks are 7.5-point favorites and hold -360 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 153 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this GreeceโSpain contest.
Greece vs. Spain prediction, pick
Here’s the scenario at the top of the group. Greece is tied with Italy at 3-1; however, the Greeks are up by 46 points on point differential. Even though the Italians are facing a 0-4 Cyprus team, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Greeks win and are outdone on point differential. So, for all intents and purposes, a win clinches the group for Greece.
The Spanish are 2-2 and have the second-best point differential in the group at +47, and are 27 points behind the Greeks. It would take a 14+ point victory by Spain and a loss by Italy to win the group. Unlikely, but possible.
Santi Aldama’s excellence in this tournament has been the story for Spain. Fresh off signing a new contract with the Grizzlies, he’s been efficient and relentless as a scorer while showing great defensive chops.
He’s going to have his hands full with Giannis Antetokounmpo on Thursday. The Greek Freak has been in prime form during the tournament, putting up some eye-popping stat lines. And with seeding implications on the line, you’d better believe he will be at full tilt here.
However, I’m not convinced that the Greeks have the right formula in this one. Spacing bigs can give them a lot of trouble; Aldama and the Hernangomez brothers could pick them apart from outside. And if Sergio de Larrea continues to hand out dimes, it could be a great day for Spain.
