Lionel Messi has taken the pitch 71 times for Argentina in World Cup qualifiers. Tonight, he’ll play what could be his final match with La Albiceleste as Argentina takes on Venezuela in Buenos Aires at 7:30 p.m. ET tonight and Ecuador in Quito next Tuesday.
Tonight’s clash with La Vinotinto will be an emotional affair, as some 85,000 fans are expected to pack into Monumental Stadium to celebrate the nation’s prodigal son on home soil one final time. Messi hasn’t yet announced whether he plans to play in the 2026 tournament, for which the defending champions have already qualified, but he’ll almost definitely have retired by the time qualifiers for the 2030 World Cup begin in late 2027.
Argentina is a -450 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook. Venezuela is +1100, and there are +550 odds that the teams will draw.
Argentina vs. Venezuela prediction, pick
This game is far more important for La Vinotinto than La Albiceleste, given that the former is on the verge of qualifying for the World Cup for the first time in its history. Beginning with the expanded 2026 tournament, the top six teams from COMNEBOL will qualify automatically for the competition and the seventh-placed team will enter the inter-confederation playoffs, which will take place next March. The top six are virtually set, with sixth-placed Colombia (22 points) four points ahead of Venezuela (18), and Peru (12) and Chile (10) have virtually been eliminated. The battle for seventh is between La Vinotinto and Bolivia (17). La Verde will face Brazil and Colombia in its remaining qualifying matches, while Venezuela will face Colombia after Argentina. Depending on which other teams participate, Venezuela — the World No. 46 — should feel good about its chances of securing one of the two qualifying spots, especially if No. 18 Senegal ends up winning its CAF group and No. 61 DR Congo drops into the playoffs.
La Albiceleste have been dominant throughout qualifying, sitting atop the table with 35 points after 16 matches, 10 more than Ecuador and Brazil. In the process, they’ve scored seven more goals than any other team and allowed the second-fewest. The team has once again been led by Messi, whose six goals rank second only behind Colombia and Bayern Münich striker Luis Díaz and whose nine goal contributions pace all players despite his playing just 11 matches. But it’s hardly been a solo effort: Atlético Madrid forward Julián Álvarez has six goal contributions and Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández has five. Two-time Yashin Trophy winner Emiliano Martínez, who’s been nominated again for this season’s award, has saved 75.0% of the shots on target he’s faced.
But while La Vinotinto faces a tough challenge, the embattled country has consistently over-performed throughout the qualifying process, playing Argentina to a draw last October. Venezuela is a veteran-led squad headlined by Real Oviedo striker Salomón Rondón and goalkeeper Rafael Romo, one of the best shot-stoppers in the Ecuadorian top flight. But despite their age, both players have excelled throughout World Cup qualifying, with Rondón scoring five goals and Romo saving 69.0% of the shots on target he’s faced. Some younger players, such as Fluminense midfielder Yeferson Soteldo and Botafogo midfielder Jefferson Savarino, have also provided attacking juice, combining for three goals and six assists in 1,746 minutes. It was Rondón who netted the equalizer last October in Maturín, on Soteldo’s assist. In that match, both of Messi’s shots were saved, a rare positive for a defense that has allowed the third-most goals in COMNEBOL qualifying.
It’s unclear whether or not Messi will play in La Albiceleste’s final qualifying match in Quito, but given the Ecuadorian capital’s elevation (9,350′) and Messi’s historic troubles with high-altitude games, it’s doubtful. He has sat out the qualifying matches in both Bogotá (8,661′) and La Paz (11,975′), and once infamously vomited on the Bolivian pitch while gasping for air in a qualifier for the 2014 World Cup. With the nation already having qualified, there’s no reason for him to risk it.
No player has scored more goals in COMNEBOL qualifying than Messi’s 34. Cheered on by an adoring crowd, it’d only be fitting for him to score his 35th and final goal to end his Argentina home career in style.
