We’ve got a fairly full slate of baseball on this last Sunday of August. Quite welcome, don’t you think, after yesterday’s absolutely spectacular introduction back to college football? As we enjoy the last of summer and turn our eyes to the diamond, I’ve got three home run props for today’s late-afternoon slate that I think might cash. I’ll be writing picks and predictions for all of these games, and while I’m indeed simply stepping in today for the venerable Zach Thompson, I’ll, per usual, keep his lovely intro about the nature of a home run bet, before you go and sprinkle on one:
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday:
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+285)
I’ve locked in on Freddie Freeman’s swagger. He’s posting a .487 xSLG and elite contact metrics. His barrel rate is 10.4% and his hard-hit rate is 45.8%. In simple terms: he crushes pitches. His average launch angle is a modest 15.6°, but he still averages 90+ mph exit velocity regularly. Those numbers scream “bombs incoming.” He hits righties even better (vs RHP he slugged .512 this year), and tonight he gets
My recent read: Freeman just hit his 18th homer (late July) and he’s in midseason form. He’s not just lucky. Every stat backs it up. With a 10.4% barrel rate and near 50% hard contact, Freeman practically spits out home runs. Dodgers Stadium is solid for lefty power too (Neutral HR park). The matchup math is on his side: he’s one of the game’s elite hitters, and the D-backs present a good risk/reward target. I don’t doubt he can flick another over the fence tonight.
His swing is flat-out electric and he gets a juicy +285 line for a reason. I’m betting on Freeman to add to his total. He’s aggressive, locks into the zone, and his 18 HRs in 2025 (and counting) tell the story. I see a solid chance he outperforms those long odds.
Michael Busch to hit a home run (+240)
I’m firing on Busch because the profile, environment, and opponent all scream lift. Busch’s 2025 line carries real thump: .260/.340/.493 with a 5.2% HR%, which translates to one homer about every 19 plate appearances. He punishes right-handed velocity and gets a righty at altitude with a staff behind him that owns MLB’s worst ERA (5.95), worst WHIP (1.60), and a .298 opponent average. Coors turbocharges flight; in 2025 the run factor sits well north of league average and the spacious alleys turn warning-track contact into wall-scrapers. Busch’s swing path is built for Denver’s air: loft through the zone, deep carry to right-center, and above-average pull leverage when he gets to advantage counts.
I want recent form to validate the trigger, and it does. Busch sits at 25 homers on the year and has been trending up over the last two weeks with multiple loud extra-base knocks, while maintaining his steady approach markers: 8.9% walk rate, 24.2% strikeout rate. That plate skills bedrock matters against a Rockies staff that strikes out the fewest hitters per nine (7.7) and struggles to finish plate appearances. If Busch sees two strikes, he still competes; if he gets ahead, he goes big-swing mode without spraying chase. The backdrop stacks more win-conditions: Colorado’s bullpen carries a 54.3% save rate and a 34.6% inherited-runner score rate, so even an early hook leaves hittable lanes.
Kyle Tucker to hit a home run (+260)
I’m firing on Tucker at altitude against a hittable staff and a green starter in Tanner Gordon. Tucker’s discipline is elite and travels; he’s running a .377 OBP, 14.7% walk rate, and only a 14.9% K%. That approach lets him pick his pitch and elevate, which plays perfectly in Denver’s thin air. The Cubs’ cleanup profile meets a staff that hemorrhages loud contact and can’t finish innings.
Colorado’s pitching opens the door all night. The Rockies own a 5.94 team ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and the league’s worst opponent batting average at .298. Their bullpen compounds the problem with a 54.3% save rate and a 34.6% inherited-runner score rate, so extra late looks are coming after Gordon exits. Coors Field amplifies true fly-ball distance and extra-base carry; the 2025 run environment has been the highest in baseball, and the spacious alleys punish any miss to the big part of the yard. Tucker’s HR% sits at 3.7% on the season, and his .465 SLG is undersold by the environment he steps into tonight.
Recent form seals the play. Over his last 10 games, Tucker is batting .297 with two doubles, three homers, five walks, and seven RBIs. That’s top-shelf bat speed meeting precision swing decisions, and it shows in his consistent lift to the pull-side seam. The surrounding order churns traffic, forcing strikes; Chicago ranks top-10 in runs and walks, so Tucker won’t get a steady diet of waste. With Matthew Boyd drawing the start for Chicago, the Cubs project to play from ahead, giving Tucker five plate appearances in a game with an 11 total.
