On Monday night, the reigning WNBA champion New York Liberty welcomed Breanna Stewart back from a knee injury that had cost her nearly a month, and it wasn’t a moment too soon. They needed every one of her 19 points in order to edge out the woeful Connecticut Sun, winning by just two in Stewie’s final game as a 30-year-old.
Stewart will open her age-31 docket tonight with a home clash against the Washington Mystics, whose slim playoff hopes are rapidly fading. The game will tip off at 7 p.m. ET at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The Liberty are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-750 Moneyline), with the total set at 163 points. Washington is +525 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Mystics at Liberty prediction, pick
Despite sub-par efficiency, Stewart was brilliant in her 20 minutes on Monday. She made only four of her 12 field goal attempts but got to the line at will, draining 11 of her 13 free throws, and her physicality could prove a huge boon to a team that averaged the fourth-fewest free throw attempts per game throughout her monthlong absence. New York was outscored by 10 during Stewart’s minutes, but that was largely a function of uncharacteristically cold shooting by Stewart’s teammates during an eight-minute stretch bisected by halftime. Even after she posted poor on-off splits on Monday, the Liberty have won Stewart’s minutes by 10 points per 100 possessions on a season-long basis and been beaten by 0.2 points per 100 possessions with her off the floor.
When healthy, Stewart is clearly New York’s best player. But she should have plenty of help from Jonquel Jones, too; the Bahamian has been on a tear in recent weeks, averaging 17.9 points and 8.6 boards per game in her last seven contests, draining 46.3% of her tries from beyond the arc, and among players who have played at least 25 games and attempted at least three triples per game, Jones’ 45.6% accuracy leads the league, with her teammates Leonie Fiebich and Kennedy Burke right behind. Jones’ brilliant play, as well as a successful WNBA return by three-time EuroLeague Women’s MVP Emma Meesseman, has helped overshadow a slump from Sabrina Ionescu, who hasn’t scored 20 points in any of her last nine games and has made just 33.9% of her shots across that span.
The Liberty’s defense hasn’t been great as of late, but it hasn’t been as bad as the Mystics’ offense. Washington has lost four straight games, posting a putrid 90.9 offensive rating across that span, despite rookie star Sonia Citron averaging 15.3 points per game on 49-53-100 shooting splits. Plenty of players have had good individual games amid the malaise — Kiki Iriafen has had a pair of double-doubles and Kira Austin scored 30 off the bench in Sunday’s narrow loss to the Seattle Storm — but the Mystics haven’t been able to put it together as a team. The team’s decision to trade All-Star Brittney Sykes to the Storm for Alysha Clark hasn’t worked out in the short term, as it has been outscored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions in Clark’s 189 minutes.
For Washington, the key to pulling off the upset will lie inside. Since signing Meesseman, a somewhat perimeter-oriented forward, New York has conceded the most boards per game in the league, and Jones’ increased offensive load has impacted her typically elite post defense. Stewart’s return should help somewhat with that — opponents have posted a total rebounding percentage 2.8 percentage points worse with her on the court, and the Liberty were allowing the third-lowest percentage in the restricted area prior to her injury — but it’ll take a while for her to play herself fully back into game shape. Since dealing Sykes, the Mystics have been particularly exploitable in the midrange and from above the break, which could play well into Ionescu’s strengths.
Ultimately, this game depends on how many minutes Stewart plays. I’d expect her to be on the floor for more than the 20 she played against Connecticut, given she’s on two days’ rest, but less than the 31.0 she’s averaged this season. Assuming she plays 24 minutes or less, I’ll take New York to win, but not against the spread.
