In the Leagues Cup, the battle between the MLS and Liga MX for North American soccer superiority has been answered pretty resoundingly: the United States’ domestic league is better. MLS teams won all four quarterfinals, and there’s only been one Mexican semifinalist in the last three seasons.
Inter Miami, a +120 favorite to win the competition, will face Orlando City tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET in a chance to play in the final for the second time in three years.
The Herons are -115 favorites to win in regular time and -180 to advance at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Lions are +240 in regular time and +140 to advance, with +300 odds that the match will require penalties to decide.
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City prediction, pick
Inter Miami managed a 2-1 win over Tigres last Wednesday despite being without Lionel Messi, who sustained a hamstring injury in a Leagues Cup match against Nexaca on August 2 and has been in and out of the lineup ever since. When he has taken the pitch, Messi has been dominant, recording 27 goal contributions in 19 MLS appearances, and the Herons will be leading the Eastern Conference if they win all three of their games in hand. He ranks second in the MLS in goals behind only Nashville SC’s Sam Surridge, who has played nearly 800 more minutes than the Argentine. It’s not a solo effort, though; Luis Suárez has 10 assists, and young Venezuelan Telasco Segovia — who has helped his country close in on World Cup qualification for the first time — has seven goals.
Miami is coming off of a 1-1 draw with D.C. United on Saturday, but several of the team’s best players, including Messi and Jordi Alba, didn’t play, with Suárez and Sergio Busquets coming off the bench in the second half. The Herons’ only goal in that game came as a result of youngster Baltasar Rodríguez, who netted for the first time in his career after joining from Argentinian side Racing Club. Both Messi and Alba are considered game-time decisions for tonight’s contest, while Suárez and Busquets are expected to start. If Messi does play, the most glaring Inter Miami absence will be head coach Javier Mascherano, who is suspended after getting sent off during the quarterfinal.
The Herons shouldn’t take Orlando City lightly, though. The Lions have beaten their Florida rivals twice this season, picking up a 3-0 win on May 18 because Miami managed to put just four of its 21 shots on target, and they managed a 4-1 victory on August 10, handily outplaying a Messi-less Herons squad and generating more — and better — chances. Orlando City sits one place ahead of Miami in the standings, amassing 47 points from 28 games, and Croatian winger Marco Pašalić and Argentine attacker Martín Ojeda both have double-digit goals. With a lethal front three that also includes Colombian veteran Luis Muriel, it’s no surprise that the Lions have scored 54 goals, tied with the Herons for the most in the MLS. Like their in-state rivals, they’ve also allowed 40 goals, thanks to a back line that’s worse than Miami’s but a superior shot-stopper in Peruvian veteran Pedro Gallese.
With the injury uncertainty surrounding Messi and the fact that Orlando has been the second-best road team in the MLS this season, this game isn’t as straightforward as the odds would make it seem. On paper, the Herons probably have more talent, but they will likely be conservative with Messi as he gears up to participate in World Cup qualifying in two weeks with his country, perhaps the last time he’ll ever suit up for La Albiceleste. Ojeda has arguably been the best player in the competition, and he’ll lead his team to at least a draw.
