Dan Johnson here subbing in for the venerable Zach Thompson on today’s home run props. I’ll just roll right into ZT’s usual refrain about home run bets being longshots, etc. Below that you’ll find my three favorite home run picks and predictions for today.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider that can point us in the right direction, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Sunday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Francisco Lindor to hit a home run (+360)
Francisco Lindor at +360 jumps off the board, and I’m firing. The switch-hitting star brings scorching form and a tailor-made matchup against Bryce Elder that screams lift-off. The recent heater matters; an 11-game hit streak with authoritative contact keeps his bat on plane and his timing perfect. The history matters more. Lindor is 6-for-10 with two home runs against Elder, carrying an expected batting average of .409 and an expected slugging of .848 in that pocket of plate appearances. He hasn’t struck out in 12 trips, showing a minuscule 5.6% whiff rate against Elder’s mix. That tells me he picks up the ball early, tracks the movement, and punishes the inevitable get-me-over.
The platoon angle stacks the deck further, since 19 of his 25 homers this season have come versus right-handed pitching. Elder’s home splits invite aggression, with a 7.43 ERA and a .931 OPS allowed in his park this year, meaning mistakes don’t come back. Lindor’s swing decisions are razor sharp right now, and his line-drive profile converts to pulled loft when he’s hunting middle-in. The Mets will give him table setters, and Elder’s contact profile supplies the lift. The board rarely gifts a converging cluster of form, matchup history, platoon power, and vulnerable run environment at this price. I’m leveraging all of it. Lindor’s barrel window stays open; Elder’s margin stays thin.
Giancarlo Stanton to hit a home run (+310)
The recent surge is loud and sustained, featuring four home runs across his last five games, and the swing looks fully synced. He’s catching everything out front, keeping the barrel in the zone forever, and punishing any spin that hangs belt-high. The matchup completes the picture. Dustin May has scuffled with command and shape, posting a 4.59 ERA and a 4.81 expected ERA that confirm the contact quality isn’t a fluke. The underlying batted-ball profile tilts dangerous, with bottom-half ranks in average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed. He has yielded nine home runs in his last nine starts, one per outing, which fits Stanton’s current damage pattern. When pitchers lose feel for glove-side sinker or cutter depth, Stanton destroys anything that backs up.
Add the environmental context. Yankee Stadium’s short porch turns top-spun lasers into souvenirs when Stanton stays through right-center. He doesn’t need perfect; he needs hittable. The Yankees’ lineup offers protection in front and behind, forcing strikes and limiting nibbling. Stanton’s pitch recognition handles velocity and hunts spin that flattens. May’s recent trend line supplies both. The number matters too. At +310, I’m paid for the variance without overpaying for name value. The swing decisions are crisp, the bat speed is premium, and the opponent’s contact ledger leaks. Stanton’s hard-hit authority collapses fences, and today’s profile hands him the launch window on a tee.
Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a home run (+390)
Vinnie Pasquantino at +390 is a green-light hammer, and I’m not blinking. The Royals’ first baseman is riding a ferocious power binge, homering in five straight and stacking eight home runs across his last 13 games while hovering around .300 during the run. That’s not noise; that’s sustained damage with repeatable swing shape. He’s on time against velocity, he’s beating spin up, and he’s producing back-spun flight to his pull side that holds carry. The matchup prints money. Jack Flaherty’s 2025 line shows a 4.51 ERA with 20 home runs allowed in 25 appearances and a 1.5 HR/9 rate that refuses to stabilize downward. The contact authority against him sits too high, and the miss pattern lives arm-side middle when the slider backs up. Pasquantino crushes right-handed pitching, with 22 of his 27 home runs this season coming off righties, and his approach disciplines the chase game. He forces strikes, lifts mistakes, and doesn’t sacrifice contact to chase juice. That skill set punishes pitchers whose strike quality wavers, and Flaherty’s recent starts show exactly that.
Even if the park plays big, Pasquantino’s trajectory wins with wall-scrapers and line-drive rockets alike. The Royals’ lineup length has improved during his surge, which ensures pitchable counts and traffic to stress sequencing. At +390, the market lags his transformation from hot streak to sustained thunder. I’ll seize the lag. Form plus platoon plus opponent’s homer leakage equals actionable value. The swing stays leveraged, the approach stays stubborn, and one mistake flies 400 feet left of the fountains.
