Are the Minnesota Lynx actually…beatable?
The WNBA’s best team has now lost two straight games after falling to the New York Liberty on Tuesday night and the Atlanta Dream last night. They’ll look to avoid making it three straight with a 7:30 p.m. ET clash tonight against the Indiana Fever.
Minnesota is a seven-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-270 Moneyline), with the total set at 166 points. Indiana is +220 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Lynx at Fever prediction, pick
As it has been for the last few contests, the X-factor for this game will be MVP favorite Napheesa Collier’s health. The 28-year-old is ramping up towards a return from the sprained ankle that she suffered in a blowout win over the Las Vegas Aces on August 2 and has been listed as questionable for the second straight game. When Collier takes the court, she’s unstoppable, averaging an efficient 23.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game while playing all-world defense, and with her on the court, the Lynx have outscored opponents by 18.4 points per 100 possessions. After sitting out last night’s contest, she seems likely to play on a heavy minutes restriction.
Even without her, though, Minnesota has enough juice to win. Losing narrowly to the Liberty despite shooting an uncharacteristic 27.3% from deep is justifyable, and getting edged out by the Atlanta Dream — probably the league’s second-best team — is as well. After losing each of their top four guards to injuries, the Fever aren’t of that caliber. The Lynx’s Collier-less offensive rating (104.1) would still be the league’s sixth-best mark this season, their defensive rating (99.1) would rank first, and their net rating (plus-5.1) would be third. They even rebound slightly better with Collier off the floor.
Indiana has lost four of its last six games while dealing with a spate of injuries. In the August 7 loss to the Phoenix Mercury, Sydney Colson went down with a torn ACL and Aari McDonald broke a bone in her right foot. Plus, though the Fever have gone 2-2 since then, their wins were over the atrocious Chicago Sky without Angel Reese and an overtime victory over the Connecticut Sun, who have been among the worst teams in the league all season. To make matters worse, Sophie Cunningham left that game and was subsequently ruled out for the season with a torn MCL. There’s still no timeline for Caitlin Clark to return from the groin strain and bone bruise that’s held her out for more than a month.
The loss of Cunningham will hurt: she’d emerged as a valuable piece after Clark’s injury, averaging 11.2 points per game on 52-47-91 shooting splits across the 13 games that she’s played without her backcourt partner. Without her, hardship contract veteran Odyssey Sims will likely step into the starting lineup, and this season, the 33-year-old Sims has amassed just 0.5 win shares.
