From here on out, nothing matters for the Minnesota Lynx until the postseason begins. Minnesota is 28-6, even after losing to the New York Liberty in the fourth WNBA Finals rematch of the season, and with a 6.5-game advantage over New York for home court advantage throughout the WNBA playoffs with 12 games to play, that is virtually secure, too.
That doesn’t mean the Lynx won’t be trying to win today when they travel to face the Atlanta Dream, who are currently tied for second in the standings with the Liberty at 22-13. It means that Minnesota can be careful with Napheesa Collier; the MVP favorite has been out since August 2 with a sprained ankle but was upgraded to questionable prior to tonight’s contest.
The Lynx are 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 Moneyline), with the total set at 161 points, and the Dream are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Lynx at Dream prediction, pick
The tenor of this game will change dramatically if Collier is eventually cleared to play. Without her, Minnesota has been pretty good, going 4-1 with a plus-5.4 net rating in the five games since she suffered the injury late in the Lynx’s blowout win over the Las Vegas Aces. With her, Minnesota is incredible, blitzing opponents by 18.4 points per 100 possessions, better than the 2000 Houston Comets’ single-season record. There are no holes in the 28-year-old’s game: she’s averaging 23.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 3.4 combined steals/blocks per game on 54-37-91 shooting splits while holding opponents to 95 points per 100 possessions.
If she plays, she’ll likely be on a minutes restriction, as the Lynx have no incentive to rush her back into the lineup. Minnesota shouldn’t be overly concerned about the fact that it lost, 85-75, to the New York Liberty on Tuesday night without her; in that game, it shot just six-for-22 (27.3%) from beyond the arc, one of its worst shooting performances of the season. For large swaths of the game, the Lynx looked like the better team, as the final margin was driven largely by one Jonquel Jones run in the second quarter and a late Sabrina Ionescu four-point play. More than anything, Minnesota should’ve been encouraged by the play of two reserves, big Maria Kliundikova and guard Natisha Hiedeman, who combined for 27 points.
Atlanta shouldn’t be underestimated, being one of just five teams to beat the Lynx with Collier in the lineup. On July 27, the Dream — without All-Star guard Rhyne Howard — managed a 90-86 victory despite Collier’s 32 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, four steals, and two blocks. They benefited from some shooting luck in that game — Kayla McBride shot just two-for-nine, tied for her fifth-least efficient shooting performance of the season — but the strong defensive performance is legitimate; they’ve gone 9-4 with the league’s second-best defensive rating since the All-Star break and have allowed only 96.2 points per 100 possessions since Howard’s return. Since her minutes restriction was lifted four games ago, Howard has averaged 19.8 points per game, showing no ill effects from the left knee injury that held her out for more than a month.
Since Howard came back, Atlanta has been extremely stingy, holding opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage from the restricted area, the sixth-lowest mark from floater range, the second-lowest mark from the midrange, and the worst accuracy from beyond the arc. Minnesota, meanwhile, has excelled from floater range, conceding non-restricted paint makes at just a 35.9% clip. For both teams, it’s strength against strength: the Dream have thrived from floater range since Howard’s return, hitting them at the fifth-highest clip, and the Lynx have recorded above-average marks in the restricted area, the midrange, and above-the-break triples without Collier.
In a tossup, I’ll go with the team with more to play for. Though Collier being upgraded to questionable is certainly an indication that she’ll return sooner rather than later, Minnesota has no incentive to risk her health. With so much uncertainty surrounding the Lynx, betting on Atlanta is a safer play.
