When the Atlanta Dream joined the WNBA in 2008, they finished just 4-30 in their inaugural season, needing 18 games and nearly two months to pick up their first win in franchise history. The talent pool has gotten deeper since then, but to say anyone expected the Golden State Valkyries to be 18-16 and almost certain to make the playoffs in their inaugural season would be a stretch.
Tonight, Golden State will welcome the Phoenix Mercury — owners of the league’s second-best defense — to the Chase Center for a 10 p.m. ET clash. Thanks in part to their vaunted “Ballhalla” atmosphere, the Valkyries are 10-6 at home this season.
Still, Phoenix is a six-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-258 Moneyline), with the total set at 156 points, and Golden State is +210 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this possible playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Mercury at Valkyries prediction, pick
When Kayla Thornton was diagnosed with a season-ending injury during the All-Star break, it seemed like Golden State’s quest at making the playoffs was over, given that Thornton had contributed 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds per game up until that point en route to her first All-Star appearance. But since then, the Valkyries have gone 8-4, posting the league’s fourth-best defensive rating and fifth-best net rating. Veronica Burton has scored 16 or more points in three of her last five games, Cecilia Zandalasini has made 48.9% of her triples, and new acquisition Iliana Rupert has scored double-digit points in six of her 12 appearances. Five different players have led the team in scoring.
In particular, Golden State has thrived by forcing opponents into an inefficient shot diet. Since the All-Star break, the Valkyries have allowed just 13.2 restricted-area tries per game, by far the fewest in the league, so they’ve allowed the fewest made layups despite holding opponents to only the fourth-worst percentage. That shouldn’t throw off the Mercury too much — they rank near the middle of the league in makes, attempts, and percentage from the restricted area — but they’ve been pretty inefficient on above-the-break threes, where Golden State has allowed by far the league’s most attempts since the All-Star break.
Individually, Phoenix has the best player in the game, Alyssa Thomas, who’s averaging a career-high 16.2 points and 9.1 assists per game to go along with 8.6 rebounds per game and elite defense. She’s been on a tear recently, becoming the first player in WNBA history to record three straight triple-doubles, and she’s averaged an ultra-efficient 17.6 points, 10.6 boards, and 8.4 assists per game since the All-Star break. Thomas is one of the league’s pre-eminent killers from floater range, and she’ll have to be on point again from that zone to lead the Mercury to a win tonight, given the Valkyries’ propensity to force non-restricted paint shots.
Phoenix’s defensive strategy has been nearly the opposite of Golden State’s since the All-Star break, as it has allowed the third-most restricted-area shots and the second-fewest floater-range shots across that span, in addition to the sixth-highest percentage on layups. The Mercury have made up for their iffy rim protection by allowing the fourth-lowest percentage from floater range, the lowest percentage from midrange, and the second-lowest percentage on above-the-break threes. The Valkyries have shot the second-lowest mark from the restricted area and made the second-fewest layups since the All-Star break, so they’ll really need their threes to fall in order to pull off the upset.
It feels like Golden State has enough to win this game, but given its iffy interior offense, I don’t feel confident enough to take it on the Moneyline.
