The Guardians have won 14 of their last 20 games, surging into the American League playoff picture. If Cleveland hopes to continue its hot streak, a win tonight against the Marlins would come in handy. With that being said, Miami is no easy out. Which club has the edge going into this inter-league matchup? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between the Marlins and Guardians.
The Guardians are favorites (-137) over the Marlins, with the over/under set at eight runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Marlins vs. Guardians prediction, preview
This might be the best pitching matchup on Wednesday’s busy 15-game slate. For the visiting Marlins, it’ll be Eury Perez toeing the slab. Tommy John surgery kept the right-hander out of action for the first two months of the season. However, he’s been nothing short of brilliant since returning to action. Over 55.1 innings of work, the 22-year-old has notched a 3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 52 strikeouts. Perez has allowed one run or less in six of his 11 outings this year.
Despite their recent success, the Guardians aren’t the most intimidating lineup. This season, the team is averaging the fifth-fewest runs per game in baseball (3.98). Just four Cleveland batters have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater: Jose Ramirez (141), Kyle Manzardo (124), Steven Kwan (103) and Daniel Schneemann (102). The Guards own the league’s fifth-lowest OPS vs. right-handed pitching.
Regardless of what happens at the plate, the Guardians can match Perez with Gavin Williams on the mound. Over the past few weeks, arguably no pitcher in the American League has been as hot as Cleveland’s ace. In seven appearances since July 1st, Williams has posted a 2.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 43 strikeouts. The most remarkable statistic during that stretch? The 26-year-old has tossed at least six innings in five of those seven starts. That includes an 8.2-inning, one-run masterpiece last week against the Mets at Citi Field.
The Marlins are a surprisingly potent offense, especially when they aren’t playing in South Beach. Miami is averaging 4.68 runs per game away from home, the sixth-highest mark in baseball. The Fish own the league’s fourth-highest batting average (.263) and ninth-highest OPS (.733) against right-handed pitching on the road.
Marlins vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Marlins ML (+113)
It’s not easy to go against Williams right now. However, Perez is just as talented, making this an even matchup on the mound. Miami’s lackluster offensive numbers at home mask its stellar play on the road. At plus money, the value tonight is on the Marlins.
