After splitting the first two games of this three-game set, both the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers hope to come away with a series win in a rubber match between AL powers on Sunday afternoon. First pitch is set for 2:35 p.m. ET from Globe Life Park in Arlington. Chris Bassitt (7-5, 4.02 ERA) looks to get back on track for Toronto, while the red-hot Jon Gray (6-2, 2.32) returns to the mound for Texas after battling a blister issue this week.
The Rangers enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Jays checking in as narrow +105 underdogs. The run total is set at 9.
Blue Jays-Rangers picks: Sunday, June 18
Injury report
Blue Jays
Out: 1B Brandon Belt (hamstring), RP Zach Pop (hamstring), SP Hyun Jin Ryu (elbow), RP Chad Green (elbow)
Rangers
Out: UTIL Brad Miller (oblique), SP Jacob deGrom (elbow), SP Glenn Otto (shoulder), SP Jake Odorizzi (arm), RP Brett Martin (shoulder)
Starting pitchers
Chris Bassitt vs. Jon Gray
Bassitt got hammered in his last start, allowing eight runs on a whopping 11 hits (including three homers) in just three innings of work in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week. That’s likely to be just a blip on the radar, though: The veteran righty had been rock-solid over his previous 12 starts, with a 2.40 ERA and .173 batting average allowed in that span. Bassitt doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he uses a kitchen-sink approach (he has at least six or seven distinct pitches that he’ll bust out in a given game) to force lots of weak contact — he ranks in the 71st percentile in average exit velocity and in the 62nd percentile in hard-hit rate.
Gray had to miss a turn in the rotation due to a blister on his pitching hand, but he’ll be back on the mound Sunday looking to continue his sensational form over the past six weeks. The righty hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start since May 2, with just an 0.84 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 43 innings over that span. The exclamation point to that torrid stretch came last week, a complete-game masterpiece in which he allowed just one run while striking out 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Over/Under pick
I know that Bassitt just got torched in his last time out, but I’m still taking the under here at a fairly high number. The Blue Jays righty has been a very reliable arm for four or five years now, and he should be able to at least keep Toronto in the game — 10 of his 14 starts this year have involved two or fewer earned runs. Gray, meanwhile, is in the middle of the best stretch of his career, and unless that blister is still bothering him that should continue today. The first two games of this series had totals of 3 and 6, while Toronto has fallen below this number in eight of their last 11.
Pick: Under 9
Moneyline pick
Gray’s rust — he hasn’t pitched since that complete game back on June 7 — is a little bit of a concern, but I still trust him slightly more than Bassitt, who’s getting hit harder than usual this year. The Jays’ star-studded lineup has been prone to blowing hot and cold so far in 2023, and I trust the Rangers to bring a bit more consistency at the plate as the narrow favorite today.
Pick: Rangers
