Two World Series contenders are set to clash tonight in Toronto. For the Blue Jays, it’s an opportunity to bolster their American League-best 69-50 record. The visiting Cubs (67-50) trail the Brewers in the NL Central race. However, Chicago’s loaded lineup makes this a nightmare for most opposing pitchers. Which squad has the edge going into this matchup? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between the Cubs and the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays are favorites (-125) over the Cubs, with the over/under set at nine runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
In most matchups, the Cubs have an edge due to their loaded lineup. After all, four different Chicago hitters rank inside the league’s top 40 in OPS. Offseason pickup Kyle Tucker has been as-advertised, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate. The Cubbies are an even better offense on the road (5.25 runs per game) than at home (4.98). Add it all up, and you have a group that strikes terror into opposing pitching staffs.
That will be the challenge for Blue Jays hurler Jose Berrios. The right-hander is no slouch, having put together another solid season. Over 136.2 innings, the two-time All-Star has notched a 3.89 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 116 strikeouts. However, he’s recorded a lackluster 4.34 ERA this year when pitching at Toronto’s Rogers Centre. Berrios has recorded a career-worst 2.58 K:BB ratio. Therefore, his 4.60 xERA, per Baseball Savant, doesn’t come as a surprise.
Fortunately for Berrios, the Jays might not need perfection on the mound. Toronto will get to face Ben Brown tonight, making his 16th start of the season. The 25-year-old’s numbers have been rough so far: 6.04 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.1 K/9. Granted, the rookie is the inverse of Berrios, owning a respectable 4.45 xERA. The biggest issue for the right-hander is giving up good contact. Per Savant, Brown’s barrel % only ranks inside the eighth percentile, while his hard-hit % is in the 11th. A lackluster 1.6 HR/9 ratio certainly doesn’t help, either.
Brown is one of just three pitchers this season to allow 100 hits in less than 100 innings. That’s bad news against anyone, especially tonight’s opponent. Toronto leads baseball with 9.23 hits per game; no other club comes particularly close. While the Blue Jays aren’t the biggest home run threats, their assembly line offense strains opposing arms. When playing at home, Canada’s team has put up the league’s second-most runs per game (5.26).
Cubs vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-125)
Berrios, while fortunate, is still the superior hurler in this matchup. It helps that the Cubs have scored baseball’s eighth-fewest runs over their last ten games (39). On the mound, Brown’s weaknesses play directly into the strengths of this loaded Blue Jays lineup. At home, back Toronto to earn a pivotal inter-league win on Tuesday.
