Two top 10 Middleweights, Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez, will face each other in the Main Event of tonight’s UFC Fight Night. Both fighters are riding win streaks, as Hernandez has won seven straight while Dolidze is unbeaten in his previous three contests.
Here is my best bet for Dolidze vs. Hernandez at tonight’s UFC Fight Night.
Anthony Hernandez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+110)
Hernandez is six years younger and is the more complete fighter than Dolidze. Hernandez most recently beat Brendan Allen by decision in February while winning by finish in four of his last four contests. Meanwhile, although Dolidze is nearing his 38th birthday, he has won three straight fights for the first time since 2022.
Dolidze is a powerful striker on the feet, having eight knockouts in his career. However, beyond that, he doesn’t have many paths to victory against Hernandez, who is a multi-dimensional fighter. Although you may think Dolidze has the edge on the feet, the stats tell a different story. Hernandez lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute, which is nearly one more than Dolidze.
On the ground, it is a complete mismatch. Hernandez averages 5.16 more takedowns per 15 minutes while landing takedowns at a 45 percent rate. Getting Hernandez at +100 to win this fight by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at +100 is an excellent play since 11 of his 14 wins have been by finish. Additionally, it is wise to back Hernandez in this area, as he is currently -345 to win this fight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
