There are 11 MLB games on the slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 1:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
SP Kumar Rocker, Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves, $6,100
Rocker was selected with the No. 3 pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. He’s a mountain of a man at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds. Oh, he also can get the fastball up to 99 mph.
As with most young pitchers, though, he’s struggled in his first real MLB stint. He did appear in three contests last season, but that was only for 11.2 innings. Through 49.1 innings this season, the ERA is a whopping 6.39 and he’s allowed nine home runs. The strikeout rate is only 19.3% and he’s been getting hit hard. The average exit velocity is 91.5 mph, the barrel rate is 13% and the hard hit rate is 48.4%.
He’s cheap for a reason.
But not all is doom and gloom. The swinging strike rate is 11.2% and the chase rate is 30%. He’s averaging 96 mph on the fastball and the FIP is much lower than the ERA at 4.87. The BABIP is an elevated .329 while the strand rate is 64.2%.
The biggest thing, though, is that Rocker has gotten rocked on the road. He’s allowed 29 earned runs on the road compared to only six at home. He’s pitched 26.1 innings on the road and 23 at home. This game is at home.
In addition, the Tigers strike out at the third-highest rate against right-handed pitching.
I wrote all of the above last week and Rocker put up 25.85 FPTS.
Rocker is once again at home this week. Granted, the opposition is better as the Atlanta Braves are 11th in strikeouts, but they are 24th in ISO and 17th in wOBA. And he’s $300 cheaper than last week!
SP Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox, $6,500
The numbers don’t jump off the page for Horton, as the strikeout rate is only 17.6%. In addition, the hard hit rate is 43.8% while the barrel rate is 12.4%. That said, the swinging strike rate is a more-than-respectable 12.4% while the chase rate is 29.6%. The ERA is 4.04 while the FIP is 4.3.
Horton is only 23 years old and this is his first stint in the majors, so the 62.1 innings have been pretty impressive, all things considered.
Horton did face the White Sox way back in May, going five innings, striking out two and allowing three earned runs on seven hits. That was his second career MLB start. Since then, he’s allowed fewer than three earned runs six times, with three without allowing an earned run. There were three starts with four, seven and four earned runs, though, so not all is sunshine and unicorns.
Chicago is 29th in ISO and dead-last in wOBA against right-handed pitching. I think Horton does a decent job the second time around.
Horton has put up double-digit FPTS five times with a high of 21.55 FPTS. Plus, he’s cheap at $6,500.
SP Jose Quintana, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins, $6,900
This recommendation is more about matchup than Quintana, who is sporting a 4.52 FIP, 16.3% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. He is a true soft-tossing lefty, averaging 90 mph on the fastball. That said, the average exit velocity is 88.9 mph and he’s allowed only nine home runs in 77.1 innings.
Quintana has put up double-digit FPTS 10 times this season, with two over 20. Granted, those came in the first four starts of the season, but he did put up 15.9 and 16.5 FPTS in the two most recent starts.
As for the matchup, Miami is 29th in ISO and 25th in wOBA against left-handed pitching.
