The 2024 New York Giants finished the season with the ninth-most passing attempts at 591. Daniel Jones started 10 games, but then was benched for Tommy “I’m Not Danny” DeVito, who suffered injuries, allowing Drew “I’m Far From A” Lock to start five games. Jones is now in Indianapolis while the quarterback depth chart has been completely revamped with the signings of Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston while drafting Jaxson Dart in the first round of the NFL draft.
New York finished with a 3-14 record last season, and their 415 points allowed were the fifth-most in the NFC. The 273 points scored were the second-fewest in the NFL! So, yeah, when you’re giving up a lot of points while scoring few yourself, the pass rate is going to be high. New York had the seventh-highest passing rate last season in the NFL.
GIANTS OVERVIEW
The Giants defense was bad last season. The unit was 26th in passing yards per attempt and 24th in rushing yards per attempt. The 15 takeaways were the fifth-lowest in the NFL. There were a bevy of injuries, though, especially to middle linebacker Bobby Okereke.
There were glimmers of positivity, as the defensive line—often a hallmark of past Giants teams—racked up 45 sacks, tied for the fifth-most. And the unit was bolstered with the drafting of Abdul Carter. The Giants also signed players in free agency for much-needed depth at all three levels.
The Giants defense could be improved with the injection of new talent, along with this being the second year of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen’s stint. Bowen has been preaching for more turnovers this season, and he dialed up blitzes at the ninth-highest rate last season, so added aggression could be on the docket.
That could go both ways, though. More mistakes could occur, leading to more points scored by the opposition, requiring the Giants to throw in order to keep on. On the flip side, higher aggression could lead to more stops and turnovers, which could allow a more run-centric offense.
Now, regardless of how the defense plays, the Giants have upgraded at quarterback, which could lead to more sustained drives. Or have they? Jones posted a -0.14 EPA per dropback last season. Wilson was at -0.06, per Next Gen Stats. The passer rating for Wilson was 95.6 while Jones was at 79.4. But Wilson had a sack rate of 8.94% while Jones was at 7.84%. The 8.94% mark was the 114th-highest mark in NFL history! For perspective, a sack rate over 10% has occurred only 47 times.
And therein lies the ultimate issue because the Giants offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. PFF has the Giants offensive line ranked 28th for the upcoming season, with the possibility of being worse if Andrew Thomas can’t stay healthy.
Wilson got benched after 11 games in Pittsburgh last season. If he struggles and the team isn’t in the playoff hunt, New York will likely give Dart experience. And a rookie quarterback will likely not be great for the passing attack.
Now, let’s take a a look at how the targets should be distributed in New York this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Malik Nabers had a gaudy 35.3% target share last season, tops in the NFL by a wide margin. Only AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson had a target share of at least 30%, and Nabers topped them by at least 3.5%. I don’t see that number changing much this season. Targets are earned, and Nabers is by far the best option in the passing game. Whoever is under center will continue to feed the Alpha and Omega of the pass catchers if he wants to remain under center.
Wan’Dale Robinson was second on the team with 140 targets last season, good for a 25.3% target share. He had a paltry aDOT of 4.8 last season, and most of his routes were either behind the line of scrimmage or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He will likely get schemed plenty of short touches while the porous offensive line could make him the ideal quick option.
Darius Slayton was third with 71 targets last season, translating to a 13.6% share. He had an aDOT of 13.1 and should get plenty of moon balls from Wilson. That said, the offensive line concerns and potential quarterback change could cause the target share to dip.
TIGHT ENDS
Theo Johnson and Daniel Bellinger will once again sit atop the depth chart this season. Bellinger is more of a blocker and received 17 targets last season in 17 games. Johnson was selected in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft, and he’s an athletic freak, measuring in at 6′ 6″, 259 pounds while running the 40-yard dash in 4.57 seconds. He garnered 43 targets and an 11.1% target share last season. The possible loss of target share for Slayton could slide over to Johnson, who could be more comfortable in his second season while Wilson has shown to have a penchant for throwing to tight ends in the past. In addition, young quarterbacks sometimes latch onto tight ends early on.
RUNNING BACKS
Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the position with 53 targets last season, good for a 9.6% target share. Devin Singletary received 24 targets. The Giants drafted Cam Skattebo, who has some receiving chops, but I think this is a three-headed backfield. Tracy runs a 4.48 40-yard dash and had a 93.3 explosive rating, so I think he continues to see close to a 10% target share. Wilson either goes for moon shots or checks it down. His check-down stats to running backs last season were warped, so I wouldn’t expect a repeat.
