The main co-event at UFC 318 features a middleweight matchup between former title challenger No. 13 Paulo Costa vs. No. 14 Roman Kopylov. Both fighters are 34 years old, with Kopylov riding a two-fight win streak and Costa losing his previous two bouts. Which fighter will move themselves closer to an opportunity at middleweight gold?
Here is my best bet for Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov in the co-main event of UFC 318.
Paolo Costa Moneyline (+190)
Costa, 34, has had quite the unique run in the UFC up until this point. He won his first five UFC fights, with four coming by knockout. However, since then, he has a 1-4 record in his previous five fights. Costa’s schedule has been as tough as anyone in the 185-pound division. He has fought four former champions (Israel Adesanya, Luke Rockhold, Robert Whittaker, and Sean Strickland).
Regardless, Costa is in desperate need of a victory to stay afloat in the talented middleweight division. Good news: Costa isn’t facing another former champion, but a rising star in Kopylov. When Costa is aggressive and puts out a high volume, he is an excellent striker. Costs lands 6.22 significant strikes per minute at a 58 percent rate, which is both better than Kopylov’s.
Getting Costa to win this contest at +190 on DraftKings Sportsbook is a great value play, as when he is at his best, a win against anyone is possible. Kopylov does have the edge on the ground, averaging 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, but with Costa’s 80 percent takedown defense, that shouldn’t be a factor in this bout. With Costa’s back against the wall, he should put out a much better performance than his last few, which should translate very well against Kopylov.
