The 2024 Dallas Cowboys finished the season with the third-most passing attempts at 637. Dak Prescott injured his hamstring in Week 9 and did not play another down the rest of the way. From Week 1 to Week 9, Dallas was third with 326 passing attempts (40.75 per game). The Cowboys’ bye week was in Week 7. From Week 10 to Week 18, Dallas was eighth with 311 passing attempts (34.5 per game).
Some of the high passing rate was due to design while factoring the depth chart, especially at running back. The main, likely culprit, though, was the porous defense, which went from fifth-best in 2023 to fifth-worst last season.
COWBOYS OVERVIEW
Matt Eberflus will now lead the defense, but I’m not expecting too much progress on that front. It will take time for Eberflus to implement his philosophy and some of the current players conflict with his vision. That said, I’m expecting a more disciplined, keeping-the-ball-in-front approach.
On the offensive front, Brian Schottenheimer was the OC in Dallas the last two seasons, but essentially in name only as Mike McCarthy was calling the plays. McCarthy is out while Schottenheimer was promoted to head coach, but I’m expecting him to don the headset and conduct the offense.
Schottenheimer has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL for 14 seasons with four different teams: the Jets, Rams, Seahawks and Cowboys.
In six seasons with New York, the Jets were seventh, 13th, 19th, first and second in rushing attempts.
In three seasons with the Rams, they were 22nd, 17th and 26th.
In three seasons with Seattle, the Seahawks were second, third and 14th.
With Dallas, the Cowboys were 14th before McCarthy took over the play-calling duties.
I think Schottenheimer will try to be more run-focused, which could bring the passing attempts down. In addition, the defense will likely still be bad, but not to the level of last season. A more disciplined approach could bleed time off the clock and keep games from getting out of hand.
Now, let’s take a a look at how the targets should be distributed in Dallas this season.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Last season, four wide receivers garnered at least 50 targets: CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks and KaVontae Turpin. Cooks is out while George Pickens is in.
The alpha of this group is Lamb, who has received 156, 181 and 152 targets over the last three seasons. Lamb boasted a 27% target share and should be in that range again this season.
Cooks played 10 games and earned 54 targets last season, good for a 16% target share. That’s going directly to George Pickens, who received 103 and 106 targets the last two seasons in Pittsburgh and should see over 100 targets in Dallas.
The biggest loser will be Tolbert, who had a 12.8% target share and 79 targets last season.
TIGHT ENDS
Jake Ferguson received 86 targets with a 16.9% target share in 14 games last season. The tight end position as a whole got 136 targets last season, so Ferguson will dominate the action at the position barring injury. The 17% target share should remain in place, as well.
RUNNING BACKS
Last season, the position saw 86 targets in Dallas, with Rico Dowdle getting 49 for an 8.4% target share. Dowdle is gone while the depth chart is populated by Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue.
Williams had a 13% target share and 70 targets in 17 games with the Denver Broncos last season. The Broncos had 31 more targets to running backs than the Cowboys last season.
Sanders had an 8.9% target share and 30 targets in 11 games with the Carolina Panthers last season.
Blue is an explosive rookie who should be in the pass-catching duties conversation for the Cowboys.
Will one back emerge as the favorite pass-catching back? Or will there be a three-headed monster? Regardless, the position likely won’t see more than 100 targets in total.
