The trilogy fight between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano is here! Taylor has a 2-0 record against Serrano, but the first two fights were two of the best in women’s boxing history. Now, three years later, the third contest in this rivalry will take place, where it all started in April 2022 at Madison Square Garden.
This eight-fight card will air live on Netflix at 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, July 11. Here are my three favorite bets for Taylor vs. Serrano 3.
Amanda Serrano by Decision or Technical Decision (-105)
Serrano lost the first two bouts against Taylor, but some will say each of them was a controversial victory. That is because Serrano outlanded Taylor in total punches and power shots in each contest. Regardless, Serrano needs to win this fight. She has already had an incredible career, but if she suffers her third loss against Taylor, it will put a damper on what has been a fantastic run.
At 36 years old, Serrano will not have another opportunity on a stage as big as this if she can’t beat Taylor. This is Serrano’s 52nd fight and 10th under the Most Valuable Promotions banner. Jake Paul and Nakisa Bidarian changed Serrano’s life in 2021, and this would be the crowning achievement for the two parties. In March, Serrano signed a lifetime deal with MVP and will serve as the chairwoman of MVP’s women’s boxing division upon her retirement from in-ring competition.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Serrano is a -175 favorite, and Taylor is a +140 underdog. However, the better play is to have Serrano win this bout via Decision or Technical Decision, which is -105. That is because six of her previous seven contests were won by decision.
Savannah Marshall by KO/TKO/DQ (+275)
Marshall is arguably the best knockout artist on this card, as she has 10 finishes in her career. She is facing Green, who is 2-1 in her last three fights and won her previous bout via split decision.
In this contest, Marshall has a 3.5-inch height advantage (5’11.5″ vs. 5’8″) with a one-inch edge in reach (72″ vs. 71″). Marshall is a -650 favorite in this matchup, but with her punching power, it is wise to get her by KO/TKO/DQ at +275 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alycia Baumgardner by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
The co-main event features a matchup between Alycia Baumgardner vs. Jennifer Miranda for the Undisputed Super Featherweight Championship. Baumgardner is coming off a no-contest against Delfine Persoon after a clash of heads. Even though Baumgardner has won her previous four fights by decision, she is due for a big knockout.
Baumgardner is a -2500 favorite in this matchup as Miranda is +1100. With her odds on the moneyline being high, the better value play is to get her to win this fight via KO/TKO/DQ.
Since Miranda is seven years older and 38, this bout favors Baumgardner. Baumgardner needs to use her elite jab to set up power punches later in the fight. She has the highest jab landed percentage (28%) among women’s boxers.
