The Phoenix Mercury are charging into the inner ring of WNBA title contenders. The Dallas Wings are charging towards another lottery season.
Dallas sits at 5-12, well outside the playoff picture. They are 4-2 over their past six games, driven by an excellent run from Paige Bueckers, who made the All-Star game as a starter in her rookie year. But little else has gone right. They’re already beginning the sell-off, trading NaLyssa Smith to the Aces for a 2027 first-round pick. That should prove to be a good bit of business, but it won’t improve their outlook in 2025.
The Mercury, on the other hand, are storming into the playoff race. At 12-5, they’re up to the second-best record in the WNBA. The defense is cooking, and the offense is figuring things out. With Kahleah Copper ramping up, their big three is looking dangerous. Phoenix is a serious threat to win a championship this season.
The Mercury are 11.5-point favorites on the road and are -550 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 166 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Mercury vs. Wings Prediction
The gulf between these two teams is considerable. Dallas can put the points up behind Bueckers, but their defense has been pretty poor. Li Yueru, coming over via trade, has considerably improved their paint presence, but the rest of the group lacks. That’s going to be a problem against this Mercury offense.
Two games ago, against a stout New York Liberty defense, they set the WNBA record for threes made as a team. Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper can light it up from the perimeter, while Alyssa Thomas remains one of the best table-setters in the league. It’s a devastating formula that should break this Wings defense to pieces.
The game plan for Phoenix is simple: contain Paige Bueckers, win the game. They have a series of quality perimeter defenders to throw at her. That means more shots for Arike Ogunbowale, who is inefficient on her best days. If that means she beats you, so be it.
Mercury vs. Wings Pick
Phoenix Mercury -11.5 (-110)
It’s a big line for a road team. But one I think the Mercury are capable of handling. Their excellent two-way play, combined with overwhelming depth, poses many problems for the Wings.
Sure, Bueckers could go off and keep Dallas in the game. Maybe Ogunbowale scores some, or Li Yueru changes the game defensively. But it’s a tall task for this team to beat the best of the best in the WNBA this season. The Mercury will secure another big win and continue their roll towards the top spot in the Western Conference.
