The Texas Rangers will host the Baltimore Orioles as part of tonight’s eight-game MLB slate. Neither of these teams finds itself with its desired outlook now that the season has passed its midway point. The Rangers enter with a record of 41-43 and sit in fourth place in the AL West, while the Orioles are in last place in the AL East with their 36-47 record.
Tonight will mark the first matchup of this three-game series, with these teams having recently faced off on June 23rd, 24th and 25th. Trevor Rogers is expected to get the start for the Orioles, while Patrick Corbin will be on the mound for the Rangers for the opening matchup of the series tonight.
The Orioles enter as narrow -118 favorites on the moneyline, and the game total is set at over/under eight runs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Rangers hold -103 odds on the moneyline to get the victory.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Monday’s Rangers vs. Orioles matchup.
Rangers vs. Orioles prediction
The Texas Rangers have underwhelmed offensively this season. They rank 25th in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging percentage. Wyatt Langford and Jake Burger are each on the injured list, taking away the only two hitters to have tallied more than nine home runs so far this season. Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager are tied for the active team leaders with nine home runs, with Garcia leading the team with 42 RBIs as well.
There has been more promising production from the Rangers’ pitching staff. They lead the MLB in team ERA at 3.24 and WHIP at 1.14 while ranking third in batting average against at .225. Jacob deGrom leads the team with eight wins, 94 strikeouts and the best ERA at 2.08. Corbin will be on the mound today, holding a 4-7 record, 4.24 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. It has not been the best start to the season for the two-time All-Star as he has not escaped a start without at least one earned run allowed so far this year.
The Baltimore Orioles enter with problems on both sides of the ball. The struggles of their pitching staff have been most notable. Baltimore currently ranks 26th in quality starts, 27th in team ERA at 5.00 and 29th in opponent batting average. Dean Kremer leads the team with six wins, while Charlie Morton has tallied the most strikeouts with 77 on the season. Rogers is set to make just his fourth start of the season tonight, but he has impressed to this point. The 27-year-old enters with a 1-0 record, a 1.62 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP and 13 strikeouts.
Looking at the Orioles’ offense, it has been a mixed bag at best. They rank 23rd in batting average, on-base percentage and runs scored. They have had some flashes of power, ranking 15th in slugging percentage, and they are 11th in home runs as a team. Cedric Mullins leads the team with 12 home runs and 39 RBIs. Jackson Holliday has also added 10 home runs and 33 RBIs.
Rangers vs. Orioles pick, best bet
These two teams have faced off earlier this week, with the Rangers taking two of the three games. The lone victory the Orioles had in the series had this same pitching matchup. Patrick Corbin struggled in the matchup, giving up nine hits and five earned runs across his 5.0 innings pitched.
Heading into today’s matchup, expect these struggles to show face once again. Corbin is posting a 4.15 ERA on the year and has allowed at least one earned run in every start. He has allowed two or more earned runs in 12 of his 14 starts and conceded 12 home runs on the season. Over his past three starts, he has conceded 21 hits and 12 runs in just 15.0 innings pitched. If the Orioles can get to Corbin early, it will be difficult for the Rangers to come back from. This is especially the case with the Rangers’ 25th ranking in runs tallied in mind.
Trevor Rogers has looked sharp for the Orioles, and the Rangers failed to get to him in the previous game. The 27-year-old pitched 8.0 innings and allowed just three hits without giving up a run. Rogers very well could be pitching above his head for now, but he has had some nice flashes in his career, dating back to his time with the Marlins. The level of play he has recently produced has been convincing, and I am backing it to continue today.
Ultimately, my concern with Patrick Corbin and the disbelief in the Rangers being able to produce enough offense to come back has me backing the Orioles. There is not much margin for error for either of these teams, and oddsmakers are viewing this as just about a toss-up. Expect the Rangers to struggle to score while Baltimore capitalizes on the struggles of Corbin. I am backing the Orioles to get the victory for the second straight time in this pitching matchup and even up the series matchup with the Rangers 2-2.
