The Mississippi State Bulldogs will host the Auburn Tigers on Saturday with major postseason implications on the line. No, not in regard to the College Football Playoff, just good old fashioned bowl season. The Tigers only need one win in the last three weeks to secure bowl eligibility, while the Bulldogs have to end the year on a 2-1 stretch to reach six wins. Although, it is worth noting that Mississippi State earned an invitation to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl in 2025 despite a 5-7 record, so who really knows how much is actually at stake these days.
Auburn is a 2.5-point road favorite on Saturday with -142 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Mississippi State is a +120 underdog, with the game total set at 50.5 points. Here is a preview of Saturday’s Week 11 SEC showdown.
Editor’s Note: The kickoff time for this game was changed from 12:00 p.m. ET to 4:15 p.m. ET due to travel issues.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers Preview
Mississippi State Bulldogs
After blowing out Louisiana-Monroe and picking up road wins against Minnesota and South Carolina, the Bulldogs beat then-No. 19 Missouri and climbed to No. 16 in the AP Poll themselves. However, star quarterback Kamario Taylor suffered a foot injury in that win, and Mississippi State proceeded to lose 56-23 to Alabama in Starkville. The Bulldogs have yet to win since, falling 31-0 at LSU, losing 23-15 at home to Oklahoma, suffering a 31-3 blowout at No. 11 Texas, and even losing 25-23 to Vanderbilt.
Taylor seemed to be on a Heisman pace with his 17 touchdowns, four interceptions, 65.4% completion percentage, and 172.8 passer rating, but his return against the Sooners was short-lived and led to season-ending surgery. His backup, sophomore Parker Puckett, posted a 59.5% completion percentage and 102.8 passer rating with one touchdown and two picks before getting benched for Appalachian State transfer AJ Swann. Through two appearances, Swann has completed 68.6% of his passes for two touchdowns, one interception and a 135.5 passer rating.
While Taylor won’t be back until 2027, lead running back Fluff Bothwell’s own injury absence only lasted a week. Excluding his one pre-injury carry against Alabama, Bothwell is averaging 107.9 scrimmage yards per game with four total touchdowns. As for wide receiver Anthony Evans III, his pace has fallen off drastically post-Taylor. He had 574 yards and five touchdowns on 40 catches through five games, but just 137 yards and no scores on 21 catches across the ensuing four contests. Sanfrisco Magee, meanwhile, leads the SEC with eight touchdowns after taking both of his catches into the end zone versus Vandy.
The Bulldogs have intercepted just two passes all season, which factors into their negative turnover differential that ranks outside the top 100 in FBS. Still, cornerback Jett Jefferson leads the conference with 10 passes defended. According to the opponent-adjusted SP+ efficiency metric, Mississippi State ranks No. 55 on offense, No. 61 on defense, and No. 36 on special teams, all leading to their No. 56 overall ranking.
Auburn Tigers
The Tigers have gone through an up-and-down season in Alex Golesh’s first year at the helm, as they beat Baylor to open 2026 but fell to Florida in a shootout shortly after. But following an expected win versus Vanderbilt and an expected loss at Tennessee, Auburn upset No. 1 Georgia on the road. Naturally, they fell back to earth with losses to then-No. 18 LSU and then-No. 12 Ole Miss before besting Arkansas 26-23.
Byrum Brown has held down the fort at quarterback after following Golesh from USF, even if his 124.7 passer rating and 11-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio leave much to be desired. For one, he is still completing 64.8% of his pass attempts. He is also up to 605 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground, scoring a touchdown from scrimmage in every game so far this year. Brown’s top two targets are Keshaun Singleton and Chas Nimrod, both of whom are over 40 catches and 400 yards on the season. He also has help from running backs Jeremiah Cobb and Omar Mabson II, who are averaging 87.3 scrimmage yards per game between them.
Linebacker Elijah Melendez is the anchor of the Tigers’ defense, as he leads the team with 67 tackles, 10.0 tackles for loss, 4.0 sacks and six passes defended in addition to topping the SEC leaderboards in solo tackles. And while Auburn ranks No. 86 in scoring defense and No. 109 in total defense, they rank No. 47 in yards allowed per play and are tied for 25th in turnovers forced per game. The Tigers rank No. 60 in SP+ with the No. 86 offense, No. 41 defense, and No. 19 special teams.
Mississippi State vs. Auburn Pick, Best Bet
In each of their last four wins, the Tigers have won by at least three points. One of those wins also came on the road against Georgia, who was the No. 1 team in the country at that point and came in at No. 1 in the latest CFP rankings. Auburn’s two road losses this year have come against Tennessee and Ole Miss – the No. 8 and No. 19 teams in the CFP rankings. Mississippi State – especially without Kamario Taylor – is nowhere near that level. The Bulldogs’ five losses have come by 33, 31, eight, 28 and two points. Their only time losing by less than 2.5 points came against Vanderbilt, which hadn’t won an SEC game before that meeting. Auburn is 18 spots higher than Vandy in the SP+, so I like them to outperform the Commodores and win by at least a field goal in Starkville on Saturday.
