Minnesota is off a hard fought loss against UCLA, but has performed well in the underdog role in Big Ten play this season. That’s where the Golden Gophers find themselves again this week, catching 11.5 points. Penn State is off a win out west over Washington, but it was a tale of two halves. This one is expected to be lower scoring, with DraftKings Sportsbook posting a total of 42.5.
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| Spread | Penn State -11.5 |
| Moneyline | Penn State -455/Minnesota +350 |
| Total | 42.5 |
| Prediction | Minnesota 23 – Penn State 20 |
| Best Bet | Minnesota +11.5 |
Minnesota vs. Penn State prediction
Editors Note: Minnesota had travel impacted and won’t be arriving at Penn State until around noon on Saturday afternoon. The news pushed the spread from 9.5 to 11.5. I’m still comfortable with my stance on this game.
I’m going to be opposite the money in this game, but I believe the price is off. Penn State began Big Ten play going 0-4, which had the Nittany Lions on a 3-10 skid in the conference, dating back to last season. Credit to them, they’ve come back around a bit, winning two in a row over Purdue and Washington.
However, the win over Purdue by 14 points is the only Power 4 team that Penn State has beat with any margin. Last week in Seattle appeared to be much more of blunder by the Huskies to start the game than anything else. Penn State took a 28-3 lead in the first half, with multiple breakdowns by Washington’s defense to allow long touchdowns. Shutting down any of those explosive plays would’ve flipped the game.
Washington closed the game on a 22-0 run, but Penn State drained the clock late to win by a field goal, despite getting shutout in the second half. PSU doesn’t have much momentum after the win, given the way it stalled late. The Nittany Lions also return home off a long travel spot to the west coast.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has been a tough out this season. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS as the underdog in conference games, with three outright wins. One of those wins was also at Washington, along with victories over Iowa and Michigan. They nearly defeated Indiana in a wild one, but easily covered. Minnesota was tied in the second half with undefeated UCLA last week, but a couple of big plays late broke the game open.
Now this tough defense goes on the road to face a Penn State team that I’m not sold has turned the season around. Minnesota is dealing with a couple of injuries to the defensive line, so the roster isn’t completely healthy. But this also isn’t enough to move this spread from +7 out to approaching double digits.
Minnesota vs. Penn State best bet
I think the Gophers are live to win this game. I gave out +10.5 earlier in the week, but the travel situation presents an even better price now on game day. If you’re betting the game on Saturday, I’d still take the points here, and think a small wager on the moneyline could even be worth firing on.
CFB Best Bet: Minnesota +11.5 (-110)
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