Tonight, arguably the WNBA’s best team will go up against arguably its hottest. The defending champion New York Liberty’s plus-13.4 net rating tops the league. The Phoenix Mercury, meanwhile, are 11-4, having won five straight games, including four on the road.
When the two teams meet at PHX Arena tonight at 10 p.m. ET, it will be one of the most highly-anticipated matchups of the WNBA regular season, as well as a meeting between sisters Nyara (New York) and Satou Sabally (Phoenix).
The Mercury are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 Moneyline), with the total set at 168 points. Below, I’ll break down the possible Finals preview.
Liberty at Mercury prediction, pick
The Liberty have been strangely cold in recent weeks, losing three of their last five games and only edging out the Golden State Valkyries by three points in their latest game. Sabrina Ionescu’s shot has suffered in the last few games, as she’s shot a combined four-for-27 from the field and two-for-17 from deep in her last two games, although she missed the June 22 loss to the Seattle Storm with neck soreness. New York’s interior game on both sides of the ball has been harmed somewhat by the sprained ankle that center Jonquel Jones suffered, and they’ll need to learn how to play without her, as she’ll be out for at least the next several weeks. At least the Liberty will soon get three-and-D wing Leonie Fiebich back soon after her time with the German national team ends.
Phoenix’s expectations weren’t that high coming into the season, as it entered a transitional period. Franchise legend Brittney Griner left for the Atlanta Dream during the offseason, and six-time All-Defensive honoree Alyssa Thomas arrived in her place. But the Mercury have used a fairly egalitarian system to rack up wins; during their five-game winning streak, four different players — Satou Sabally, Thomas, Monique Akoa-Makani, and fellow new arrival Sami Whitcomb — have led the team in scoring. Whitcomb, a 32.5% three-point shooter who ranks fifth on the team in defensive win shares, fits the coveted mold of three-and-D wing, and Akoa-Makani has been a pleasant surprise as a rookie as a low-usage, ultra-efficient guard.
Fundamentally, tonight’s game will be determined by how well Ionescu shoots. It might be a tough night for her; the Mercury have allowed the fifth-lowest percentage on above-the-break threes, where Ionescu takes more than half of her shots. Phoenix also allows a below-average percentage in the restricted area, where Stewart — who shoots a league-best 82.8% on such shots — thrives. The only areas in which the Mercury have allowed above-average shooting percentages are from the midrange and the right corner, and the Liberty don’t have any players who have been particularly prolific from either area.
The turnover battle will also be important, as New York leads the league in fast-break points and ranks second in points off turnovers. However, Phoenix is no slouch in either category, ranking third in points off turnovers and sixth in fast-break points. The last time these teams met, last Thursday, Ionescu had five of the team’s 19 turnovers and the Liberty only managed to force the Mercury into 13 giveaways. Phoenix also out-rebounded New York by 10, which has happened in two of the three games since losing Jones — the league’s second-leading rebounder — to her injury.
