The Aces host the Sun on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Las Vegas is favored by 19 points and the game carries a total of 159.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup between the Aces and the Sun and give a pick for the game.
Aces vs. Sun preview, prediction
The Aces are coming off a strong eight-point win over the Fever on Sunday, while the Sun have lost six games in a row. Las Vegas hasn’t been great this season with a 6-7 record as they rank ninth of 13 WNBA teams in net rating, but the Aces have been far better than the Sun, who quite frankly have been the laughingstock of the league thus far. Connecticut is an embarrassing 2-12 and the club ranks dead last in net rating by a mile at -20.3. For some perspective, the Sky rank second-to-last at -13.1. Wednesday night will be the second time the Aces and Sun have gone head-to-head this season and in that first matchup, Las Vegas blew out Connecticut by 25 points.
Three-time MVP A’ja Wilson has continued to be a dominant force for the Aces, averaging 21.1 points, 9.8 rebounds and a league-high 2.6 blocks per game. Plus, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray have been excellent for Las Vegas, averaging 18.5 and 14.2 PPG, respectively.
For the struggling Sun, Tina Charles has been the club’s best player, averaging 16.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Marina Mabrey has also been strong with 15.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game, but the guard will miss her second straight game Wednesday with a knee injury and is expected to be sidelined for two-to-four weeks. With Mabrey out Sunday vs. the Valkyries, the Sun lost by 25 points.
Aces vs. Sun pick, best bet
With Connecticut’s second-leading scorer sidelined, it is very difficult to have any faith in the Sun, especially on the road, where the team is 1-6 this season. Conversely, the Aces are 4-3 at home. Las Vegas should cruise to an easy win, but the problem is that this 19-point spread in favor of the Aces feels too long with the team just 4-9 ATS this season. Betting the Sun to cover +19 is very risky given the team’s current state, so instead of backing a team here, attacking the total is smart.
This game presents an O/U game total of 159.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is simply too high for this matchup. With that said, backing the under is a great choice. When the Aces and Sun met earlier this season, the contest only produced 149 points and that was with Mabrey active for Connecticut. The Sun only scored 63 points with Mabrey inactive this past Sunday and Connecticut should once again be a disaster offensively tonight. This matchup between Las Vegas and Connecticut should fall short of this 159.5-point total.
